The following is found at the top of the page on the third link

1. Where there are more guns there is more homicide (literature review)

Our review of the academic literature found that a broad array of evidence indicates that gun availability is a risk factor for homicide, both in the United States and across high-income countries. Case-control studies, ecological time-series and cross-sectional studies indicate that in homes, cities, states and regions in the U.S., where there are more guns, both men and women are at a higher risk for homicide, particularly firearm homicide.

The following items 2-4 also address this

2. Across high-income nations, more guns = more homicide
3. Across states, more guns = more homicide, 4. Across states, more guns = more homicide (2)

This isn’t the only study among those linked which compares risk factors of gun ownership and gun carrying across different locations in the world where laws and rates differ. I’m confused as to how this does not answer your question, as there is a plethora of literature which directly correlate gun carry rates with increased risk of homicide. The only difference between the linked article and the studies on this is the specific timeframe studied… is there something special about 2015-2019 that a doubled carry rate compared in another study would not adequately forecast or explain?