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This election cycle, former President Donald Trump has made one campaign promise the most prominent: Mass deportation. It is a long-standing vow. In 2016, Trump said he would deport the 11 million undocumented immigrants living in the United States. Once in the White House, he ordered sweeping worksite raids, enacted a ban on travelers from Muslim-majority countries, and deliberately separated migrant families, many of whom have yet to be reunited.

But thanks to outside resistance, internal opposition, sanctuary policies, legal guardrails, and sheer ineptitude, the Trump administration removed fewer than 1 million people from the country—far behind the number Barack Obama deported during his first four years in office.

In a second term, Trump has pledged to fulfill his promise and conduct “the largest domestic deportation operation in American history.” His acolytes, led by hardliner Stephen Miller, have spent years devising legal workarounds to prevent their extreme proposals from being curtailed or killed in the courts. […]

If Trump and his allies have it their way, armed troops and out-of-state law enforcement would likely blitz into communities—knocking on doors, searching workplaces and homes, and arbitrarily interrogating and arresting suspected undocumented immigrants. The dragnet would almost certainly ensnare US citizens, too.

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Not only would Trump’s plan rip families and communities apart, but it also would have devastating effects for years to come, including on US citizens who perhaps have overlooked how integral undocumented immigrants are to their everyday life. Trump frames immigration as an existential threat to the United States. He has said immigrants are “taking our jobs,” are “not people,” and are “poisoning the blood of our country.” The reality is that if his plan were implemented, American life as we know it would be ruined—even for those cheering for mass deportation.

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According to a 2016 report by the Center for American Progress, deporting 7 million workers would “reduce national employment by an amount similar to that experienced during the Great Recession.” GDP would immediately contract by 1.4 percent, and, eventually, by 2.6 percent. In 20 years, the US economy would shrink nearly 6 percent—or $1.6 trillion. Trump’s plan would lead to a dire shortage of low-wage workers, which would “bring on a recession while reigniting inflation,” predicts Robert J. Shapiro, a former undersecretary of commerce in the Clinton administration.

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Instead of freeing up employment opportunities [after mass deportations of undocumented immigrants], findings from one study suggest that the deportation of 11 million undocumented workers could result in 968,000 fewer jobs available for US citizens, losses that would be compounded each year the policy remained in effect.

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A recent study projected that if 7.5 million workers were deported, inflation would rise by 3 percent in two years.

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The price of services would be almost 10 percent higher by 2029.

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Half of all farmworkers in the United States are undocumented. A mass deportation program would lead to reduced domestic production and increased reliance on imports. Pierre Mérel, an agricultural and resource economics expert at the University of California, Davis, estimates [based on a study] that a 50 percent decrease in the farm labor supply could result in a 21 percent increase in the prices of hand-picked crops.

“If [immigrant workers] just disappeared overnight,” says Andrew Mickelsen, whose family operates a potato farm in Idaho, “[the sector] would be devastated…I do not think that we in this country could grow enough food.”

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Some 350,000 undocumented immigrants work in health care, with more than two-thirds employed as providers or in supporting jobs. On top of that, more than 160,000 are employed as cleaners and housekeepers […] “When former President Donald Trump talks about mass deportations and enforcement, he’s talking about eradicating the type of quality of life that Americans enjoy right now," says Rebecca Shi, executive director of the American Business Immigration Coalition.

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One in five undocumented workers—1.4 million people—are ­employed in construction. That’s more than 10 percent of the entire labor force, and 32 percent of roofers. With the industry already facing a shortage of about 500,000 workers, Trump’s deportation scheme would grind the construction of new housing to a halt, turbocharging the affordability crisis.

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These businesses already make bank on deportations

Private prison companies: In 2022, immigration detention center operators CoreCivic and the GEO Group brought in a combined $1.5 billion from deals with ICE.

Surveillance contractors: BI Incorporated, a GEO Group subsidiary, signed a five-year, $2.2 billion contract in 2020 to provide ankle monitors and a phone app that tracks immigrants waiting for court dates. Palantir Technologies, a data analytics company co-founded by Peter Thiel, also has lucrative agreements with ICE for software the agency has used to plan raids.

Consulting firms: Deloitte’s “law enforcement systems and analysis” services for ICE’s removal operations have netted the consulting giant $54 million since 2020.

Charter flight operators: CSI Aviation has an interim contract for daily deportation flights worth $128.3 million.