- cross-posted to:
- programming@lemmy.ml
- technews@radiation.party
- cross-posted to:
- programming@lemmy.ml
- technews@radiation.party
It’s not the 1st time a language/tool will be lost to the annals of the job market, eg VB6 or FoxPro. Though previously all such cases used to happen gradually, giving most people enough time to adapt to the changes.
I wonder what’s it going to be like this time now that the machine, w/ the help of humans of course, can accomplish an otherwise multi-month risky corporate project much faster? What happens to all those COBOL developer jobs?
Pray share your thoughts, esp if you’re a COBOL professional and have more context around the implication of this announcement 🙏
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I have my doubts that this works well, every LLM we’ve seen that translates/writes code often makes mistakes and outputs garbage.
Yes, and among the mistakes, it will probably introduce some hard to find bugs/vulnerabilities.
Just ask it to also write tests, duh /s
You don’t need it to be perfect, there will still be human intervention.
This sounds no different than the static analysis tools we’ve had for COBOL for some time now.
The problem isn’t a conversion of what may or may not be complex code, it’s taking the time to prove out a new solution.
I can take any old service program on one of our IBM i machines and convert it out to Java no problem. The issue arises if some other subsystem that relies on that gets stalled out because the activation group is transient and spin up of the JVM is the stalling part.
Now suddenly, I need named activation and that means I need to take lifetimes into account. Static values are now suddenly living between requests when procedures don’t initial them. And all of that is a great way to start leaking data all over the place. And when you suddenly start putting other people’s phone numbers on 15 year contracts that have serious legal ramifications, legal doesn’t tend to like that.
It isn’t just enough to convert COBOL 1:1 to Java. You have to have an understanding of what the program is trying to get done. And just looking at the code isn’t going to make that obvious. Another example, this module locks a data area down because we need this other module to hit an error condition. The restart condition for the module reloads it into a different mode that’s appropriate for the process which sends a message to the guest module to unlock the data area.
Yes, I shit you not. There is a program out there doing critical work where the expected execution path is to on purpose cause an error so that some part of code in the recovery gets ran. How many of you think an AI is going to pick up that context?
The tools back then were limited and so programmers did all kinds of hacky things to get particular things done. We’ve got tools now to fix that, just that so much has already been layered on top of the way things work right now. Pair with the whole, we cannot buy a second machine to build a new system and any new program must work 99.999% right out of the gate.
COBOL is just a language, it’s not the biggest problem. The biggest problem is the expectation. These systems run absolutely critical functions that just simply cannot fail. Trying to foray into Java or whatever language means we have to build a system that doesn’t have 45 years worth of testing that runs perfectly. It’s just not a realistic expectation.
What pisses me off about many such endeavors is, that these companies always want big-bang solutions, which are excessively hard to plan out due to the complexity of these systems, so it’s hard to put a financial number on the project and they typically end up with hundreds of people involved during “planning” just to be sacked before any meaningful progress could be made.
Instead they could simply take the engineers they need for maintenance anyway, and give them the freedom to rework the system in the time they are assigned to the project. Those systems are - in my opinion - basically microservice systems. Thousands of more or less small modules inter-connected by JCL scripts and batch processes. So instead of doing it big bang, you could tackle module by module. The module doesn’t care in what language the other side is written in, as long as it still is able to work with the same datastructure(s).
Pick a module, understand it, write tests if they are missing, and then rewrite it.
After some years of doing that, all modules will be in a modern language (Java, Go, Rust, whatever) and you will have test coverage and hopefully even documentation. Then you can start refactoring the architecture.
But I guess that would be too easy and not enterprisy enough.
I think you vastly overestimate the separability of these systems.
Picture 10,000 lines of code in one method, with a history of multiple decades.
Now picture that that method has buried in it, complex interactions with another method of similar size, which is triggered via an obscure side-effect.
Picture whole teams of developers adding to this on a daily basis in realtime.
There is no “meaningful progress” to be made here. It may offend your aesthetic sense, but it’s just the reality of doing business.
What’s the alternative in your opinion?
Not doing anything and keep fiddling around in this mess for the next 20 years?
Continue trying to capture this problem big-bang, which means not only dealing with one such unmaintainable module but all of them at once?
Will every module be a piece of cake? Hell no. But if you never start anywhere, it doesn’t get better on its own.
The alternative is to continue with a process that’s been demonstrably successful, despite it offending your sensibilities.
Banks are prepared to pay for it. People are prepared to do it. It meets the business needs. Change is massively high-risk in a hugely conservative industry.
And what is that successful process?
Not a cobol professional but i know companies that have tried (and failed) to migrate from cobol to java because of the enormously high stakes involved (usually financial).
LLMs can speed up the process, but ultimately nobody is going to just say “yes, let’s accept all suggested changes the LLM makes”. The risk appetite of companies won’t change because of LLMs.
Wonder what makes it so difficult. “Cobol to Java” doesn’t sound like an impossible task since transpilers exist. Maybe they can’t get similar performance characteristics in the auto-transpiled code?
That’s alot of effort to go from one horrible programming language to another horrible programming language.
Yes. Leave it to IBM to take a terrible idea and make it worse.
- argv_minus_one ( @argv_minus_one@beehaw.org ) 22•1 year ago
If even highly skilled humans couldn’t do that, artificial pseudointelligence doesn’t stand a chance in hell.
There’s nothing of substance here. Just suits chasing buzzwords. Nothing will actually happen, just like nothing actually happened every other time some fancy new programming language or methodology came along and tried to replace COBOL, including Java.
This is what I don’t get. Rewriting COBOL code into Java code is dead easy. You could teach a junior dev COBOL (assuming this hasn’t been banned under the Geneva Convention yet) and have them spitting out Java code in weeks for a lot cheaper.
The problem isn’t converting COBOL code to Java code. The problem is converting COBOL code to Java code so that it cannot ever possibly have even the most minute difference or bug under any possible circumstances ever. Even the tiniest tiniest little “oh well that’s just a silly little thing” bug could cost billions of dollars in the financial world. That’s why you need to pay COBOL experts millions of dollars to manage your COBOL code.
I don’t understand what person looked at this problem and said “You know what never does anything wrong or makes any mistake ever? Generative AI”
Ooh good point
What if IBM had a product that did the COBOL->Java conversion (no what if tbh, believe it exists), then just changed the marketing material to make it seem flashy?
So like, you think it’s Ai but really it’s the same grammar translation functions that have been around for ever.
“all those COBOL developer jobs” nowadays probably fit in one bus. That’s why every company that can afford it moves away from COBOL.
So the fintech companies who rely on that tested (though unliked) lump of iron from IBM running an OS, language, and architecture built to do fast, high-throughput transactional work should trust AI to turn it into Java code to run on hardware and infrastructure of their own choosing without having architected the whole migration from the ground up?
Don’t get me wrong, I want to see the world move away from cobol and ancient big blue hardware, but there are safer ways to do this and the investment cost would likely be worth it.
Can you tell I work in fintech?
- socsa ( @socsa@lemmy.ml ) 14•1 year ago
What a terrible day to be literate
Why Java instead of C# or Go though?
Because IBM doesn’t want to tie themselves to Google or Microsoft. They already have their own builds of OpenJDK.
No. Because IBM sells WebSphere, so java it is so they can up sell you for more contract labor.
Without a requirements doc stamped in metal you won’t get 1:1 feature replication
This was kind of a joke but it’s actually very real tbh, the problems that companies have with human devs trying to bring ancient systems into the modern world will all be replicated here. The PM won’t stop trying to add features just because the team doing it is using an LLM, and the team doing it won’t be the team that built it, so they won’t get all the nuances and intricacies right. So you get a strictly worse product, but it’s cheaper (maybe) so it has to balance out against the cost of the loss in quality
Im sorta excited for stuff like this to get going in terms of video games. There are some great games and it would be great if it was easier to pull it into a more modern engine or such.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
For large organizations, it tends to be a complex and costly proposition, given the small number of COBOL experts in the world.
When the Commonwealth Bank of Australia replaced its core COBOL platform in 2012, it took five years and cost over $700 million.
Running locally in an on-premises configuration or in the cloud as a managed service, Code Assistant is powered by a code-generating model, CodeNet, that can understand not only COBOL and Java but around 80 different programming languages.
A recent Stanford study finds that software engineers who use code-generating AI systems similar to it are more likely to cause vulnerabilities in the apps they develop.
“Like any AI system, there might be unique usage patterns of an enterprise’s COBOL application that Code Assistant for IBM Z may not have mastered yet,” Puri said.
IBM sees a future in broader code-generating AI tools, as well — intent on competing with apps like GitHub Copilot and Amazon CodeWhisperer.
The original article contains 734 words, the summary contains 159 words. Saved 78%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!
Though previously all such cases used to happen gradually, giving most people enough time to adapt to the changes.
The Luddites would like to have a word with you.