Across the dozens of economic indicators released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics last week, few demonstrated the difficulty of pinning down the state of the world’s second-biggest economy better than the steel data.

Just months ago, steel output – previously subject to an informal cap as Beijing sought to curb emissions and production – was on course to expand significantly in 2023 for the first time in two years.

But – in line with an official desire to reduce output – December production fell 15 per cent year-on-year to its weakest level since 2017, a rate of decline that meant total annual output edged up, but remained essentially flat at just over 1 billion tons.