Cross-posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/11353321

"I’ve been in China for 27 years, and this is probably the lowest confidence I’ve ever seen,” says Shaun Rein, founder of the China Market Research Group.

Among the more tremulous sectors of the Chinese economy, Rein identified the country’s once-bloated real estate market, which accounts for roughly a third of China’s economic activity and has been tumbling sharply since Beijing’s broad-stroke crackdown on the debt levels of mainland property developers. Real estate giants Evergrande and Country Garden have become key casualties of the clampdown.

″[Buyers] think housing prices might continue to drop, so even if there’s pent-up demand for housing, a lot of home buyers are telling us, we’re not going to buy this month, we’re not going to buy this quarter, because we’re scared prices are going to drop another couple [of] percent in the coming months,” Rein says.

  • Only 3-6 months ‘painful’ ? These situations can take many years to resolve - as mentioned at the end “could take more than 10 years to liquidate the current overhang in its housing inventory” … except that the population will also be smaller after those ten years, so in less popular places those blocks may never be filled.