Sato will become the only option by 2531, suggests modelling as part of campaign to overturn outdated law requiring spouses to have same surname
  •  blindsight   ( @blindsight@beehaw.org ) 
    2•7 months ago

    I posted this in another thread on this article:

    The math is wrong.

    You can’t apply exponential growth to the proportion of a total.

    Growing from 1% to 2% (a 100% gain) is equally a reduction from 99% to 98%, a 1.01% drop.
    Going from 99% to 100% (a 1.01% gain) is equally a reduction from 1% to 0%, an infinite drop.

    Simple exponential modeling is the wrong tool.