Edit: Here’s the exact same clip on the standard YouTube Watch page.
courtesy of zagorath
Brandon Sanderson the fantasy author
For those uninterested in watching a youtube short (sorry), the theory is pretty simple:
COVID and the death of theatres broke the film industry’s controlled, simple and effective marketing pipeline (watch movie in theatres -> watch trailer before hand -> watch that tailer’s movie in theatres …) and so now films have the same problems books have always had which is that of finding a way to break through in a saturated market, grab people’s attention and find an audience. Not being experienced with this, the film industry is floundering.
In just this clip he doesn’t mention streaming and TV (perhaps he does in the full podcast), but that basically contributes to the same dynamic of saturation and noise.
Do note that Sanderson openly admits its a mostly unfounded theory.
For me personally, I’m not sure how effective the theatrical trailers have been in governing my movie watching choices for a long time. Certainly there was a time that they did. But since trailers went online (anyone remember Apple Trailers!?) it’s been through YouTube and online spaces like this.
Perhaps that’s relatively uncommon? Or perhaps COVID was just the straw that broke the camel’s back? Or maybe there’s a generational factor where now, compared to 10 years ago, the post X-Gen and “more online” demographic is relatively decisive of TV/Film sales?
I think the change in business model from theatre-exclusive for a long period of time to direct-to-streaming or fast-tracked streaming is related, which IIRC he/Dan mentioned in the full podcast. But I don’t think this theory about trailers is correct. I’ve never known someone to get excited for a movie based on seeing the trailer before another movie. They find out in the news or on social media, and see the trailer on YouTube.
Streaming is just not as profitable as theatres, but it’s a much more convenient way for people to watch. I’ve seen some people make suggestions on how to make the theatregoing experience better to entice people to go, but the biggest thing IMO is just the fact that it’s on streaming early at all. From a personal perspective, I hope they don’t do this, but I do think it would benefit movies’ profitability to lock in much longer theatre-exclusive periods.
But also, less crappy studio-run films pls? Almost nothing Disney is putting out these days is worth seeing, because it’s all lame remakes and sequels. We need studios to be brave and just trust good filmmakers to make good films, not constantly try to chase industry trends.