Joe Biden has been briefed on the chaotic situation in Russia with US officials describing it as “serious”.
The president was being kept informed as Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was accused by Moscow of launching an armed rebellion.
A White House National Security Council spokesman said: “We are monitoring the situation and will be consulting with allies and partners on these developments.”
A US official told CNN this crisis was “real” but the Pentagon and White House were waiting to see how it developed.
Steve Hall, former CIA chief of Russia operations, said it was in a “different league” to Prigozhin’s previous complaints against the Russian military hierarchy.
I know it’s good seeing the snake eat its own tale, but what happens if Wagner group takes over Russia? My understanding is that both the group and the guy in charge of the group are no better than Putin. Do they take out Putin, then step aside for a democratically elected president?
Genuinely curious—is there any reason to believe they’d actually do this?
Absolutely zero percent chance that happens. The only outcome of this is undisguised dictatorship. The only thing we don’t know yet is whether it’s Wagner succeeding and installing a military junta or Putin surviving and using this as an excuse to dissolve whatever semblance of a democracy they pretended to have.
I don’t see any chance for democracy anytime soon. Best case, Russian army and Wagner troops will decimate each other severely, and whoever ends up in power is struggling too much with domestic problems to effectively fight any other countries.
Worst case, one of the military leaders dies early, all troops end up intact in one hand, and whoever ends up the dictator is less inhibited to use nukes in Ukraine, thinking it might assert their dominance.
I doubt things in Russia will get better but I’d expect the country would come out weaker so hopefully they wouldn’t be able to continue their wars since they’ll be more concerned with consolidating power.
Russian history tldr version: And then things got worse
I think looking at coups historically would be beneficial. I don’t imagine Russia as a state (either way) will have much energy for foreign invasion while it’s dealing with an internal one. I would imagine there will be much they need to rebuild in an institutional sense…
I doubt anyone involved is going to step aside and risk falling out of a window for democracy in Russia.