I’m sure there’s an argument to be made about not buying things you can’t afford, but looking at the graph in that article, people are going to get fucked on mortgage renewals. Anyone that locked in for 3/4/5 years are going to be renewing between now and the next couple of years and going from BOC rate of 0.25% to 5% or more is going to hurt.
Or with a large downpayment. People that bought within or below their means might be well within the position to upgrade using their savings. After all, high interest rates are good for those savings.
At the same time banks get more cautious about who they lend to. If you’re rich and a cash buyer is great as you can snap up a few houses at discount to add to your portfolio. Normal people, not so great.
All those people have to live somewhere. Or there will be a massive increase in homelessness.
With a flood of houses on the market, they will snapped up by… people with a good cash flow… like… corporations. Who will then turn around and rent them out to you and me and all those people forced out of their homes… at whatever rental rate they desire… while raking in the cash.
I assume you can’t afford a house now and couldn’t afford a house when rates were as low as 1%. Even if a house is foreclosed on and dramatically drops in price, do you think you will actually be able to pony up and pay a downpayment and manage a mortgage rate at say… 8 percent? I seriously doubt it. A $1.8 million home (at today’s valuation) isn’t going to pop onto the market at $150,000 in 2 years when the renewal hits.
The reality is that the banks will do whatever they can to keep people in their houses. I checked my bank today to estimate what my mortgage renewal will look like when it comes up and they are offering mortgage terms up to 59 years. I can afford my renewal even at the new rate because I bought a bit over at 1/3rd of what they approved me for… I knew rates would go up, and I knew what I could afford at more typical rates. I’d rather pay the lower rates of course… but…
If my family of four can live cramped inside a one bedroom apartment for years, then overleveraged folks can downsize from the large houses they bought during the pandemic. And, if nothing else, it will feel a little like justice.
That’s not the discussion here though. It was about how the sharp rise in interest rates will flood the market with foreclosed homes… somehow making it magically affordable for people who couldn’t afford a house at the low interest rates.
And now your family of four in your cramped apartment will be competing with a LOT more people for that same number of cramped spaces… supply/demand… it’s going to hurt EVERYONE not just the overleveraged. Meanwhile corporate housing companies will be playing Scrooge McDuck.
I don’t know who is downvoting you because you are completely right.
At the same time, I am delighted at the idea of a bunch of speculators being stressed out and losing a ton of the money they obtained while making housing unaffordable for everybody else.
Housing can be affordable or it can be a good investment. It can’t be both, and it is time it starts being the former.
I don’t know who is downvoting you because you are completely right.
There’s a contingent of jaded people who just want to see slightly better-off middle-class people punished for taking any risk in buying their house, rather than actually seeing the housing market become more affordable for everyone. There’s always someone celebrating the upcoming foreclosures.
In 2020 I locked in at 1.79%. 2025 is going to be about a 1.5k mortage payment hike if things stay the same. Luckily I moved to a cheaper area and reduced my mortage and will be paying extra for the next 2 years. Even with all that this is gonna hurt!
Yep. It’s like this is specifically targeting people who could finally fucking afford to buy homes in their thirties and jumped on it before it was too late. (I know it isn’t actively malicious, but the effects down the line - and let’s just throw in https://lemmy.ca/post/1338829 while we’re at it - are going to be horrendous).
Creating sell pressure is a tiny part of the solution. The real problem is supply. We need 10x the current build rate. Zoning laws, out dated transport infrastructure and greedy developers will ensure this remains a decades long problem.
Personally I would prefer if housing prices were brought down by an increased supply of affordable housing at least commensurate with the population growth rather than by forcing people into foreclosure.
We’re having the exact same issue in the UK. Plus the price of energy pretty much quadrupled.
The era of cheap debt had to come to an end, and before the pandemic the BoE had a plan to gradually raise rates over a 5 year period. Then COVID happened and they dropped rates even lower than they had been before! So rather than a gradual end to the cheap debt era we’ve shoved our foot on the accelerator and gone straight into the wall. With no airbag or seatbelt.
I’m sure there’s an argument to be made about not buying things you can’t afford, but looking at the graph in that article, people are going to get fucked on mortgage renewals. Anyone that locked in for 3/4/5 years are going to be renewing between now and the next couple of years and going from BOC rate of 0.25% to 5% or more is going to hurt.
Look on the bright side. If enough people default on their loans, I might be able to buy a house one day.
That won’t go on your favour. That will go VERY badly.
Depends. Maybe OP meant outright.
Or with a large downpayment. People that bought within or below their means might be well within the position to upgrade using their savings. After all, high interest rates are good for those savings.
Why not? Genuine question. If a bunch of people go under and their houses hit the market, supply increases, homes get cheaper.
At the same time banks get more cautious about who they lend to. If you’re rich and a cash buyer is great as you can snap up a few houses at discount to add to your portfolio. Normal people, not so great.
All those people have to live somewhere. Or there will be a massive increase in homelessness.
With a flood of houses on the market, they will snapped up by… people with a good cash flow… like… corporations. Who will then turn around and rent them out to you and me and all those people forced out of their homes… at whatever rental rate they desire… while raking in the cash.
I assume you can’t afford a house now and couldn’t afford a house when rates were as low as 1%. Even if a house is foreclosed on and dramatically drops in price, do you think you will actually be able to pony up and pay a downpayment and manage a mortgage rate at say… 8 percent? I seriously doubt it. A $1.8 million home (at today’s valuation) isn’t going to pop onto the market at $150,000 in 2 years when the renewal hits.
The reality is that the banks will do whatever they can to keep people in their houses. I checked my bank today to estimate what my mortgage renewal will look like when it comes up and they are offering mortgage terms up to 59 years. I can afford my renewal even at the new rate because I bought a bit over at 1/3rd of what they approved me for… I knew rates would go up, and I knew what I could afford at more typical rates. I’d rather pay the lower rates of course… but…
If my family of four can live cramped inside a one bedroom apartment for years, then overleveraged folks can downsize from the large houses they bought during the pandemic. And, if nothing else, it will feel a little like justice.
That’s not the discussion here though. It was about how the sharp rise in interest rates will flood the market with foreclosed homes… somehow making it magically affordable for people who couldn’t afford a house at the low interest rates.
And now your family of four in your cramped apartment will be competing with a LOT more people for that same number of cramped spaces… supply/demand… it’s going to hurt EVERYONE not just the overleveraged. Meanwhile corporate housing companies will be playing Scrooge McDuck.
I don’t know who is downvoting you because you are completely right.
At the same time, I am delighted at the idea of a bunch of speculators being stressed out and losing a ton of the money they obtained while making housing unaffordable for everybody else.
Housing can be affordable or it can be a good investment. It can’t be both, and it is time it starts being the former.
There’s a contingent of jaded people who just want to see slightly better-off middle-class people punished for taking any risk in buying their house, rather than actually seeing the housing market become more affordable for everyone. There’s always someone celebrating the upcoming foreclosures.
Haha, I’m in danger!
In 2020 I locked in at 1.79%. 2025 is going to be about a 1.5k mortage payment hike if things stay the same. Luckily I moved to a cheaper area and reduced my mortage and will be paying extra for the next 2 years. Even with all that this is gonna hurt!
I renew next August
RIP me.
Corporate investors can’t wait for you to default on your mortgage! They can scoop up all these discounted properties and rent it back to you.
Yep. It’s like this is specifically targeting people who could finally fucking afford to buy homes in their thirties and jumped on it before it was too late. (I know it isn’t actively malicious, but the effects down the line - and let’s just throw in https://lemmy.ca/post/1338829 while we’re at it - are going to be horrendous).
I wonder if home insurance claims are also increasing?
I think that’s the intent right? How else are property values going to stop skyrocketing if no one is under any sell pressure?
Creating sell pressure is a tiny part of the solution. The real problem is supply. We need 10x the current build rate. Zoning laws, out dated transport infrastructure and greedy developers will ensure this remains a decades long problem.
Personally I would prefer if housing prices were brought down by an increased supply of affordable housing at least commensurate with the population growth rather than by forcing people into foreclosure.
We’re having the exact same issue in the UK. Plus the price of energy pretty much quadrupled.
The era of cheap debt had to come to an end, and before the pandemic the BoE had a plan to gradually raise rates over a 5 year period. Then COVID happened and they dropped rates even lower than they had been before! So rather than a gradual end to the cheap debt era we’ve shoved our foot on the accelerator and gone straight into the wall. With no airbag or seatbelt.