Surface of the ocean or anywhere from the deepest trench up?
Surface, no brainer, I can swim for 30s. Below the surface, you’ll be like the surfaced blob fish before the end of the first month.
100%. I’ll take my chances with the mostly empty ocean for a few years over dealing with capitalism trying to kill me for 40+ more years for the crime of being poor.
Random part sounds like the monkey’s paw part to me. Random spot on the surface, not bad. Random part including underwater? Sure, you can hold your breath, but there could be a large pressure differential. Your ears word also suffer. I don’t think that’s long enough to risk the bends etc but there’s a lot more depth than there is surface.
Sounds like a good alarm clock.
Can I choose a different time on weekends and holidays?
Does it take daylight savings into account?
It says I come back dry… does it clean me too? Can it replace a shower, is what I’m getting at…?
Random part of the ocean: any day, you can arrive in the middle of a storm, get crushed by a massive wave on nearby rocks (or ice, or floating debris) and die in an instant.
You can arrive in a patch of human garbage and be stabbed by metal or wood, or swallow petrol or oil, and return wounded to death.
You can land in the spot where orcas are fighting, or a white whale is just splashing and be killed there and then.
You can land in front of a cruiseship as it arrives at full speed and be knocked dead on the spot.
I don’t know why people aren’t more terrified of the ocean.
You should be terrified of the ocean.
The ocean is fucking huge. With a truly random location there’s a beyond minuscule chance that you’ll be transported near any rocks or animals that even register your presence within 30 seconds. This one is a no brainer.
So in
5years, you will be throwing1825times.
Say, probability of one of those problematic events isP(E), whereEis the event.
Probability ofEhappeningn(Natural) number of times would be either0orP(E), withP(E)forn = 1and0forn > 1, because you don’t get more than1life to make it happen more than once.Probability of it happening at least once in the whole
5years of time, isP(E) × 1825.
So, what is the value you set toP(E)to convince yourself that probability is the correct thing to go by?I checked wiki for a couple numbers, and it looks like Earth’s ocean surface area is 361 million km^2, and the shoreline is 356,000 km. Even assuming every bit of the shoreline is made of sharp deadly rocks, there’s an extremely low probability you’ll end up near the shore at all, even with almost 1900 chances at it.
Going by masquenox’s comment, you might want to consider the whole volume of the oceans and the instant depressurisation that would occur if you were to survive the pressurisation.
Yeah the volume is one thing but I assumed we were talking about the surface. If you could end up miles underwater it wouldn’t be worth it
It’s not
P(E) x 1825that makes no sense because the probabilities are independent. It’s1 - (1 - P(E))^1825– your maths would imply that a 1/1000 chance had a 100% probability of happening after 1000 attempts, which is not how independent probabilities work.Anyway I’d probably go for it if it were, like, 1/100,000, giving a probability of the bad thing happening once over 5 years at just under 2%
I just remembered I hadn’t tried to write anything in J for like a year so I had a go at seeing how far the approximation was from the real values and got:
(-.@^&1825@-. % *&1825)@(0.1&^)"0 i. 10 0.000547945 0.00547945 0.0547945 0.459687 0.914098 0.990935 0.999089 0.999909 0.999991 0.999999So it looks like the ratio probably converges as you increase n (these results are for 1, 1/10, 1/100 etc) but that
x 1825is always higher and starts off wildly off. But these numbers are probably mad squiffy because floating point yadda yadda.Edit again: oh yeah. Binomial expansion. Once the negation of your probability gets very close to 1 the initial coefficient will absolutely dominate. Proof left for reader.
So, either I get micro-vacations and rich, or I die? Where’s the downside?
Sounds kind of easy with the thermal suit involved
Even without it, you can survive 30 seconds in the biting cold easily.
Honestly seeing a new part of the sea every day could be fun.
The critical thing is that you get to choose the time. So you simply schedule it for just before you get in the shower every day.
Close your eyes and hold your breath, quick 30 seconds plunge, return to find yourself in the shower so everything gets washed away. There are people with too much money, who’d pay for that kind of thing. Much of the ocean is completely empty anyway.
Or (and this is a bit dark) you donate 49.5 million to charity, take the 50 skip days immediately, have a very nice holiday with the 500k, then kill yourself on day 51 safe in the knowledge you’ve left a lasting legacy and done more to help others than most could ever hope to. Probably be able to cram a better life in those 50 days than many will be able to fit in 50 years too.
Mr. Beast: Taking notes.
This is easy. Just be in a hospital or whatever every day so when you come back, even if you royally messed up and took a bunch of water in your lungs, they can easily get it out quickly. With 50 skip days? Yeah just take like the first 3 and get good swimming lessons and arrange for a hospital or doctor or whatever to be ready to revive you. This is all assuming we mean a random point on the surface of the ocean, not under it. The odds of ever being somewhere where something other than the water being the problem are so miniscule. The post even says you get a thermal suit.
You don’t even need swimming lessons. Just ball up and hold your breath for 30s.
Yeah, honestly, I don’t think you can die in 30 seconds if you’re appearing in a hospital when you’re done. It’s just for risk mitigation and mitigating the psychological terror of being in the ocean for 30 seconds.
random part of the ocean
At 2000 meter depth…
It’ll be a routine like a gym that you will start to miss it once the 5 year is up (the thermal suit and auto drying are crazy good boons to make this way less unpleasant than it could be).
The ocean is BIG. Chance of something big enough to be interested in you discovering you and deciding to eat you in 30 seconds is minuscule.
Sharks aren’t mindless chomping machines.
Cthulhu might be problematic, though.
Take the deal. Donate almost all of the money to good causes because $100 million is far more than necessary to live a no-worries (money) life.
Even if I die in the ocean, I will die knowing that I did good in this life.
Into a random part of the ocean, you say?
Does into include the bottom of the Mariana Trench, perhaps?
If so… my answer is nope.
My immediate thoughts also. This why you have lawyers proofread things (even if in this case one doesn’t need to be a lawyer to catch this).
Thinking about some more.
Yeah, you just need more “What if?” people to proofread it.
I don’t think you can drown in 30 seconds?
So, just don’t get eaten. How hard can it be?
