Not an alarmist, but the notion of a limited attack on NATO as part of Putin’s end-game is more credible than many think.
Biggest mistake you can make in war is assuming your enemy thinks like you and wants the same things you do. Most rational thinkers understand NATO vs. Russia would be short, nasty affair that Russia would lose badly. At least on a military basis.
But if you’re Putin - you already have fallen short of your goals and want to salvage something other than total conquest of Ukraine. Formally annexing Belarus and fragmenting NATO is MAYBE a prize that the average Russian would accept, or at least keep them from calling for Putin’s head.
What does that mean? Poland is too strong, you can’t get to Romania, thus the Baltics are the obvious target. Small, right on your border, has water access, and Trump would no doubt refuse to honor Article 5 based on their limited stature. The military outcome is perhaps irrelevant to the real prize - punching NATO’s fringes in the face, having a muddled response and thus showing Article 5 to just be words on a page. Even if you don’t capture the Baltics, and lose militarily, if NATO doesn’t respond overwhelmingly, then he might consider that a victory in itself.
Hell - invading NATO countries and watching the U.S. thrash and get even further divided over their lack of response is probably at least as valuable as any slice of Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia. And they very well could be thinking that an isolationist stance over a ‘far-off’ war in the Baltics is perfect ammo to energize struggling Trump’s base for midterms.
The risk:reward is suprisingly high for Russia, in a world where they’ve painted themselves into a corner surrounded by bad choices. Trump’s likely to be weakened significantly in the midterms. All of their options suck - but the circumstances to get SOMETHING they can point to as a win will probably never be better than it is now. A last, insane move primarily for the sake of damaging NATO & US unity. They could possibly take that back to the Russian nationlist crowd as a minor consolation prize for getting their asses handed to them by inferior little ukraine.
Trump is their last best hope, and he may never be more useful than he is while he still controls the GOP majorities. It’s easy and fun to dunk on Russia’s struggles - but that only increases the chance that they do something even more desperate and crazy, like invade the Baltics. It’s not that unlikely, big picture. Thoughts?
Yeah, well. Putin also considered Ukraine an easy target, too. So, I think we can safely conclude that Putin doesn’t know shit.
It doesn’t matter if by a random chance you have to be the target though.
Dangerous to underestimate him, or expect that he will take his SMO lessons and act in a more restrained manner. He has always historically escalated things rather than scaling back. Assessing him as not knowing shit might mean the risk of another stupid invasion is MORE rather than less likely.
Putin and every dipshit on his side also believed Ukraine to fall in 3 days. The entire russian nation is collectively getting buttpummeled since day one.
russia can start that attack, yes. And it will run into a Polish fist, roll over, cry and die.
No doubt. Poland is a non-starter not least of which because of Poland’s strength, but that it would endanger Kaliningrad and even Belarus. If they DID invade anywhere in the Baltics though, Poland might unilaterally provide military support even if the rest of NATO wavers. And what hasn’t really been considered much either is the Finnish response. The Finns have a more truculent and sober view of the threat. It’s not crazy to consider that in case of a Baltic invasion, both Finland and Poland might decide to unilaterally exceed whatever response NATO decided on. The threat to them is MUCH more immediate than it is to the rest of the alliance. I don’t think the current state of the Russian Army could handle fighting EITHER the Finns or Poles in addition to Ukraine. Dangerous time.
Well, given the fact that NATO countries are currently too busy with rerouting their underwater cables to please the idiots, that old bald dickhead might not be very wrong in his ambitions…
deleted by creator
