Assuming neither Redbull driver finishes, who is the most likely driver to win a race? Alonso seems like the obvious choice, but with Mercedes looking strong, who knows?
What would happen if Stroll recovers and wins before Alonso? What sort of meltdown are we looking at?
Boring guesses: In order of probability, Alonso, Russell, then Hamilton, with the latter two being closely matched, and Hamilton’s form seeming to improve as Mercedes gets the car working.
Fun guesses: Leclerc, when the stars align such that on same day, the pit wall doesn’t trip over its own shoelaces, Charles doesn’t try to 11/10ths the car through an imaginary Mario Kart shortcut that’s actually just an Armco, and Max has mechanical trouble, or Ocon, when the skies open up with torrential rain that red flags the race at just the right time in the pit stop cycle.
I think I would swap Russel and Hamilton personally, but they are close.
Alonso won’t care if Stroll wins a single race in a season where the WDC isn’t on. He’ll be happy for him and the team.
If Stroll wins a race when the WDC is on, it means Alonso also has a race winning car and he’ll be backing himself to be better over the season.
As for the question in the title, Hamilton, Alonso, Russel, Leclerc, in order of most likely descending.
Depending on if Merc shows the same form in Canada it’s a Lewis/George/Alonso toss up for me. If not, Alonso. Stroll could happen in theory but it would require Alonso having a shit day.
Alonso wouldnt care about stroll winning I don’t think. He’d just be happy.
Looking at the cars that stand a chance (more or less) I think any Aston Martin, Ferrari or Mercedes driver has a change of winning a race. For the rest it basically needs some freak event to deliver another winner.
I really don’t hate Stroll like some mindlessly so, but the l problem is that even if he has the most dominant car on the grid during a race, it’s very likely he’ll still be beaten by either his teammate or those in slower cars.
He has 1/3 the amount of points as Alonso right now and is sitting down in 8th while driving what has overall been the second best car this season. This isn’t new either. Almost every season he’s been in F1 he has underperformed compared to his teammate/car capability.
It’ll be interesting to see how Aston navigates the pressure of having almost all the components of a championship winning team, except for Stroll.
I actually rank Stroll pretty highly compared to most, but this season in particular has been abysmal.
Looking back, I think his 2020 season sort of shows he could at least be on the level of Perez. But then, he really needs to start getting podiums this year for that to be even remotely true.
I think Hamilton will get there first. Afraid to say if but I don’t think Alonso will get his win.
It depends on what type of track the red bulls dnf. Front limited circuits favour Mercedes like we saw in Spain last time out. On rear limited tracks, Aston had the advantage, at least before the Merc upgrades.