• They’ve already been moving troops and equipment away from the Finnish borded demonstrating that despite their narrative they’re not actually worried about NATO invasion. If the Wagner mutiny revealed anything it’s that if Finland ever wanted to take back Karelia now would be the time and to be honest we could snatch St. Petersburg while we’re at it and basically receive zero resistance. We wont though and they know it.

  • Dictators like Putin dare not let their military become powerful. There is too much risk that the military will rise up and depose the dictator. In most NATO countries the military and people believe in the country and rule of law and so they won’t do that. However a dictator doesn’t have that option.

    Russia will make a show of building up, but they will be careful about it. Weapons systems that look good in the demo will be ordered in small numbers, but not enough to make a difference in any war as they would be used against them. Even when they do have good systems, leaders are promoted based on loyalty to the dictator, not how good they are.

  •  vegai   ( @vegai@suppo.fi ) 
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    11 months ago

    Over the last year, they pretty much cleared the border of troops to support the Ukraine war. A lot of them now stay in Ukraine permanently. Hence Finland could walk into (though obviously not actually hold) St. Petersburg right now.

    I think this shows better than anything how much they really are worried about NATO.

    So in order to even restore the troop levels prior to Finland’s joining NATO they indeed have to bolster their “defences” quite a lot.

  • This is the best summary I could come up with:


    Aug 9 (Reuters) - Russia will build up forces at its western borders following Finland’s accession to the U.S.-led NATO alliance, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu told the governing board of the ministry on Wednesday.

    “The collective West is waging a proxy war against Russia,” he said, according to his ministry, pointing to its “unprecedented support” for Ukraine in supplying tens of billions of dollars’ worth of weaponry to help Kyiv repel Russian forces.

    The two Nordic states abandoned generations of neutrality that had held throughout the Cold War to seek NATO membership following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine early last year.

    “On Finnish territory, it is likely that additional military contingents and strike weapons of NATO will be deployed, capable of hitting critical targets in the northwest of Russia at a considerable depth,” Shoigu said.

    “Today, at the meeting of the Board, we will consider issues related to the creation of the Leningrad and Moscow military districts with the simultaneous strengthening of groupings of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on our western borders.”

    Shoigu said the number of NATO military units from outside the region stationed in eastern Europe had increased by two-and- a-half times since February last year and that they were now 30,000-strong in total.


    I’m a bot and I’m open source!

    • It won’t, it’s just bluster. With 90% probability they won’t do jack shit to a NATO country because they know that’d be the end of us all. That 10% is the Russian sociopath factor; I could absolutely believe they’d prefer killing a huge chunk of humanity and themselves rather than look weak

    • They couldn’t even handle Ukraine. How is this going to get bumpy? What troops do they even have to build up in the west.

      Remember a few years ago when Russian mercs decided to attack an American special forces team in Syria and they not only failed to kill a single American they got bombed into oblivion?

      Same thing will happen if these troops so much as step into NATO territory

      • From what I heard it was a bit more nuanced than that. The russian government deliberately ordered the army’s air defences disabled which allowed American air power to have free reign in that battlefield. I’ve no doubt the americans would have beaten them back regardless but with casualties.