Ok. I’m not convinced of most of what you say, certainly not to the level of certainty that you have. I’d still love to see actual evidence of what you’re saying. Extrapolating 3 years of progress, especially when that progress is rapid, out to infinity is a classic mistake. Do you really think that, for example, the progress that models have made in 2026 is anywhere near the level that they made from, say, Jan 2024 to Nov 2024?

I do agree that things have changed and that maybe it is progress.

How long do you think you’ll be needed to do that?

I have yet to see much evidence that indicates that I won’t be needed indefinitely.

The models are coming for your job.

Gonna need some citations on this, chief. I don’t necessarily disagree, but proper architecture and high level analysis and design, especially of large existing systems, is something that LLMs have always been quite bad at, and I don’t think that’s going to change anytime soon. But I know the state of the art is hard to follow, so if you have any new developments to share I’d love to look at them.

They’ll get good enough to replace you, and sooner than you think. If you think you’re safe, you’re delusional.

I have never thought I was “safe” in this industry, going back 30 years. But I think there’s 1) a lot of questionable fear mongering going around, and 2) a very clear possibility of a talent shortage if we keep going on this trajectory.

Just wanted to offer a counter argument to this: I’ve been in software for a few decades and while things are changing fast, and I absolutely don’t program by hand basically ever, I still draw on my experience extensively, every day, when designing systems and reviewing code.

My current fear is that with the drop in college CS enrollment and the lack of opportunities for junior folks to get up to speed via coding by hand, we will eventually reach a point where most of the senior folks have retired, and the remainder of the engineers won’t have the deep understanding that I and others have. This will create a shortage of experienced people who can actually solve real architectural problems and review code accurately.

So I think there is still opportunity for someone who is motivated enough to become that “future me.” Will there be fewer of those positions available? Most likely. But I believe there will also be a huge shortage of competent candidates.