Isn’t it pretty bad for the scenario that the China nationalising stuff didn’t happen, since a race with China is the main fuel for the scenario’s fire? Most of the stuff they got correct this time around were no-brainers (business gurus talking about AI and the market for junior engineers being in turmoil) plus, they didn’t get the ‘people who know how to use AI are making a killing’ mostly right either
Anyways still extremely doubtful of superhuman coders in March 2027
”Anyone remember Lou Pai? He was an Enron executive got caught cheating and had to settle his divorce by giving up 50% of his shares at the peak of enron’s share price, with anthropic and openai hemorrhaging money and unable to fund their compute commits the timing of this is extremely suspicious as trump admitted he was aware of this a year ago. Now that democrats have taken control of the senate, it seems an opportune time for Jensen to cash out his shares and keep half of all the gains made through this AI bubble.”
we got Robo-Jesus instead
El-Sayed supports Bernie’s call to pause AI
so needless to say, dark times ahead for the AI industry
Depends on if there’s anyone left in the US govt who’d be interested in upholding all that stuff about not exporting top tier AI server components to geopolitical rivals I’d guess.
Imo I can see both outcomes: Trump and Nvidia pulling strings and bending the rules to keep Huang in for the sake of the markets/protecting Trump’s precious ‘SI’ companies, and Trump getting pissed because of selling to China/GOP using him as a scapegoat and having him forcefully resign
this was just a screenshot I took. post on a different sub about the same thing
Got another sneer in while looking at r/BetterOffline
Nvidia Opens Investigation Into Jensen Huang’s Relationship With Chinese Spy
so uhh I take it thats not very good news for Nvidia
Anthropic’s IPO roadshow could potentially start this week the ‘before thanksgiving’ due date is still in place
Yes.
ECI is the benchmark measurement from Epoch AI, and AECI is benchmark measurement from Anthropic
I looked again, and it seems they just flat out deleted every other ECI measurement except for Astra
Here’s what it looked like then
and heres what it looks like now
Which is suspect because all of those ECI measurements were behind pace
I looked through their methodology page (https://github.com/spicylemonade/AI-2027-tracker/blob/master/docs/methodology.md) and the only reason I can find is that AECI fits METR better, and that “The three ECI variants are too close to separate on 12 tests, so the chart keeps the simplest one.” Yet they say that ECI and AECI cannot be compared, so why keep Astra and get rid of all the other? They kept in multiple different models for Opus and Mythos, so why remove GPT 5.4 Pro, Sol and Opus’s ECI? Also shows that the website had AI slop assistance via Claude
AI 2027 tracker has updated again
-On the main page chart, they decided to map the Anthropic unreleased models from the METR report for some reason. Setting aside how mapping unreleased models is inherently flawed because we don’t have the full picture, the METR report also said that their measurements come with a high uncertainty
Onto the list of predictions
-Late 2026 is at 84%
-Still doing that weird thing where 80% is both partially accurate and confirmed accurate
-The stock market prediction should be lower, since it didn’t get anywhere near 30%
-Imo the AI narrative prediction should also be lower, since theres conflicting reports about AI being amazing/AI being trash all over mainstream news
-One prediction got a 100% score even though part of it didn’t happen (under OpenBrain releases Agent 1 mini: “The part that did not happen is OpenBrain blowing away the competition: several labs shipped cheap, near-frontier models within weeks of each other.”)
-The key metrics seem to be mostly based on estimates rather than confirmed figures, so likely subject to change
Overall seems like they got a lot of ‘easy’ stuff right (ie business gurus shilling AI) but missed the harder stuff
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Anthropic employee has had their brain destroyed by rationalist circlejerk
‘we need to make armageddon happen as fast as possible even though I dont think it will be very good. a trillion dollars please’
I feel like Anthropic will try to bend to the dems