The Conservatives have a 16-point lead. Three-quarters of the country think it’s time for a change. But Justin Trudeau is vowing to fight Pierre Poilievre in the next election.

  • The liberals are toast at this point in 2025, even if they switch leaders ahead of it. Nothing they can do will make things more affordable for voters prior to that election, and that’s going to be the number one reason people are voting.

    Probably a better long-term Liberal electoral strategy is for Justin to lose, resign quickly, and get replaced for the 2029 election than to have a new leader come in prior to the 2025 election and lose, and then have that same person try for 2029.

    Having a new leader for 3 years, and 4 years of people getting mad at the Conservatives for not actually improving things like they’ve been saying they can magically do is more likely to lead to a Liberal election success for that follow up election in 2029.

    Just my nickel.