Last month, Alberta didn’t just announce it had transitioned entirely off coal as an energy source; the province kicked the fossil fuel six years ahead of a wildly ambitious schedule. The scale of achievement this represents defies exaggeration—and contains a warning for oil fans everywhere. […] what happened to coal is coming for oil next.
Virtually every major analyst that isn’t an oil company (and even some of them, like BP) now expects global demand for oil to peak around 2030, if not sooner; McKinsey, Rystad Energy, DNV, and the International Energy Agency all agree. This places Canada in a uniquely vulnerable position. Oil is Canada’s biggest export by a mile, a vital organ of our economy: we sold $123 billion worth of it in 2022 (cars came in second, at just under $30 billion). Three quarters of that oil is exported as bitumen—the most expensive, emissions-heavy form of petroleum in the market and therefore the hardest to sell. That makes us incredibly sensitive to fluctuations in global demand. Think of coal as the canary in our oil patch.
Extractive industry is heavily required if we’re going to get off fossil fuels, we have tons of metals that are pretty damn important for building nuclear and various renewable energy sources.
But in the meantime, the world was clamouring for natural gas because of sudden restrictions due to the war in Ukraine and it was pants-on-head retarded to turn that down.
Which is true, but the issue is that Canada didn’t plan ahead like either Saudi Arabia or Norway and use our oil wealth for something useful.
We have away royalties and used the money for tax cuts and giveaways to the rich. Alberta in particular is guilty of being unable to plan for a rainy day.
Uhm, natural gas is not an alternative to oil. Has the same problems.
Fossil fuels aren’t a yes/no thing, we aren’t getting off them cold turkey and neither is any other country. Part of the process is substituting higher emitting fossil fuels with lower emitting ones while we work towards the goal.
For the 25½ years we have left? Better subsidize research on alternatives to plastic and kerosine. Oil getting more expensive in the process would even be helpful.
Should have, yes. But time is short now.