Last month, Alberta didn’t just announce it had transitioned entirely off coal as an energy source; the province kicked the fossil fuel six years ahead of a wildly ambitious schedule. The scale of achievement this represents defies exaggeration—and contains a warning for oil fans everywhere. […] what happened to coal is coming for oil next.
Virtually every major analyst that isn’t an oil company (and even some of them, like BP) now expects global demand for oil to peak around 2030, if not sooner; McKinsey, Rystad Energy, DNV, and the International Energy Agency all agree. This places Canada in a uniquely vulnerable position. Oil is Canada’s biggest export by a mile, a vital organ of our economy: we sold $123 billion worth of it in 2022 (cars came in second, at just under $30 billion). Three quarters of that oil is exported as bitumen—the most expensive, emissions-heavy form of petroleum in the market and therefore the hardest to sell. That makes us incredibly sensitive to fluctuations in global demand. Think of coal as the canary in our oil patch.
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Other than selling mediocre coffee and McMansions to each other, Canada has precious little else. That’s why we cling like limpets to extractive industry: without it, we’ve got nothing because our governments have comprehensively failed to develop much of an industry, preferring to give tax breaks to oil barons and house traders.
I was writing a rant, but yeah, I’m tired of our industry being snapped up and run into the ground and important crown corps or public works being sold off for pennies.
We didn’t get here overnight and we won’t get out overnight either, there’s definitely been some movement, lots of strategic plans and investments plus the technology superclusters are working to update our industry, just would like to see the needle move faster and like, more reporting and messaging on what’s being done at each level of government because I don’t feel like we’re generally aware of that.
We don’t even own our shitty coffee anymore, and most of our mcmansions are owned by foreign investors.
When the USA stops flirting and goes fully fascist we can become a powerhouse in scientific research and film/tv production.
When the USA goes full on fascism, we’re France.
Unfortunately, we probably don’t even get to be France. We might be Austria though.
I dont think so. America will still want to believe they are good and righteous long after the truth is clear to everyone else. They will victimize far away “evils” in the name of freedom and democracy while keeping up appearances. Mexico on the other hand…
They are fully capable of atrocities up to and including nuking any number of countries and still feel good and righteous. Like many occupiers of France did.
Extractive industry is heavily required if we’re going to get off fossil fuels, we have tons of metals that are pretty damn important for building nuclear and various renewable energy sources.
But in the meantime, the world was clamouring for natural gas because of sudden restrictions due to the war in Ukraine and it was pants-on-head retarded to turn that down.
Uhm, natural gas is not an alternative to oil. Has the same problems.
Fossil fuels aren’t a yes/no thing, we aren’t getting off them cold turkey and neither is any other country. Part of the process is substituting higher emitting fossil fuels with lower emitting ones while we work towards the goal.
For the 25½ years we have left? Better subsidize research on alternatives to plastic and kerosine. Oil getting more expensive in the process would even be helpful.
Should have, yes. But time is short now.
Which is true, but the issue is that Canada didn’t plan ahead like either Saudi Arabia or Norway and use our oil wealth for something useful.
We have away royalties and used the money for tax cuts and giveaways to the rich. Alberta in particular is guilty of being unable to plan for a rainy day.
The walrus got two things wrong, right in the headline:
Canada
Alberta
On for dear life
…the rest of Canada hostage
Other than that, good title.
Alberta just kicked Coal years ahead of schedule. Yes, they’re also keeping the rest of the country using and producing oil, but clearly that province is working hard to reduce emissions.
Something is working
Canada is run by oil companies. They need to make hay while the sun shines. When the price crashes, their whales will already have quietly moved their assets elsewhere, and the people who actually use Canada as a place to live instead of as a colonialist state that exists to serve corporations will just be fucked. Tell me that’s not the actual plan.
I mean despite the oil companies whining about how important they are oil represents what, 3.5 percent of Canada’s GDP?
Don’t worry, we can fall back on our #1 driver of GDP… real estate!
peak around 2030
And then we have to get rid of it in only 20 years? Ambitious.