• Unfortunately AI models like this one often never make it to the clinic. The model could be impressive enough to identify 100% of cases that will develop breast cancer. However if it has a false positive rate of say 5% it’s use may actually create more harm than it intends to prevent.

    • Another big thing to note, we recently had a different but VERY similar headline about finding typhoid early and was able to point it out more accurately than doctors could.

      But when they examined the AI to see what it was doing, it turns out that it was weighing the specs of the machine being used to do the scan… An older machine means the area was likely poorer and therefore more likely to have typhoid. The AI wasn’t pointing out if someone had Typhoid it was just telling you if they were in a rich area or not.

      • That’s actually really smart. But that info wasn’t given to doctors examining the scan, so it’s not a fair comparison. It’s a valid diagnostic technique to focus on the particular problems in the local area.

        “When you hear hoofbeats, think horses not zebras” (outside of Africa)

        • The thing is tho… It has a better detection rate ON THE SAMPLES THEY HAD but because it wasn’t actually detecting anything other than wealth there was no way for them to trust it would stay accurate.

          •  Tja   ( @Tja@programming.dev ) 
            link
            fedilink
            English
            21 month ago

            Citation needed.

            Usually detection rates are given on a new set of samples, on the samples they used for training detection rate would be 100% by definition.

            •  0ops   ( @0ops@lemm.ee ) 
              link
              fedilink
              English
              3
              edit-2
              1 month ago

              Right, there’s typically separate “training” and “validation” sets for a model to train, validate, and iterate on, and then a totally separate “test” dataset that measures how effective the model is on similar data that it wasn’t trained on.

              If the model gets good results on the validation dataset but less good on the test dataset, that typically means that it’s “over fit”. Essentially the model started memorizing frivolous details specific to the validation set that while they do improve evaluation results on that specific dataset, they do nothing or even hurt the results for the testing and other datasets that weren’t a part of training. Basically, the model failed to abstract what it’s supposed to detect, only managing good results in validation through brute memorization.

              I’m not sure if that’s quite what’s happening in maven’s description though. If it’s real my initial thoughts are an unrepresentative dataset + failing to reach high accuracy to begin with. I buy that there’s a correlation between machine specs and positive cases, but I’m sure it’s not a perfect correlation. Like maven said, old areas get new machines sometimes. If the models accuracy was never high to begin with, that correlation may just be the models best guess. Even though I’m sure that it would always take machine specs into account as long as they’re part of the dataset, if actual symptoms correlate more strongly to positive diagnoses than machine specs do, then I’d expect the model to evaluate primarily on symptoms, and thus be more accurate. Sorry this got longer than I wanted

              •  Tja   ( @Tja@programming.dev ) 
                link
                fedilink
                English
                11 month ago

                It’s no problem to have a longer description if you want to get nuance. I think that’s a good description and fair assumptions. Reality is rarely as black and white as reddit/lemmy wants it to be.

            • What if one of those lower economic areas decides that the machine is too old and they need to replace it with a brand new one? Now every single case is a false negative because of how highly that was rated in the system.

              The data they had collected followed that trend but there is no way to think that it’ll last forever or remain consistent because it isn’t about the person it’s just about class.

    • Not at all, in this case.

      A false positive of even 50% can mean telling the patient “they are at a higher risk of developing breast cancer and should get screened every 6 months instead of every year for the next 5 years”.

      Keep in mind that women have about a 12% chance of getting breast cancer at some point in their lives. During the highest risk years its a 2 percent chamce per year, so a machine with a 50% false positive for a 5 year prediction would still only be telling like 15% of women to be screened more often.

      •  Slotos   ( @Slotos@feddit.nl ) 
        link
        fedilink
        English
        12 months ago

        “90% accurate” is a non-statement. It’s like you haven’t even watched the video you respond to. Also, where the hell did you pull that number from?

        How specific is it and how sensitive is it is what matters. And if Mirai in https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/scitranslmed.aba4373 is the same model that the tweet mentions, then neither its specificity nor sensitivity reach 90%. And considering that the image in the tweet is trackable to a publication in the same year (https://news.mit.edu/2021/robust-artificial-intelligence-tools-predict-future-cancer-0128), I’m fairly sure that it’s the same Mirai.

        •  EatATaco   ( @EatATaco@lemm.ee ) 
          link
          fedilink
          English
          1
          edit-2
          2 months ago

          Also, where the hell did you pull that number from?

          Well, you can just do the math yourself, it’s pretty straight-forward.

          However, more to the point, it’s taken right from around 38 seconds into the video. Kind of funny to be accused of “not watching the video” by someone who is implying the number was pulled from nowhere, when it’s right in the video.

          I certainly don’t think this closes the book on anything, but I’m responding to your claim that it’s not useful. If this is a cheap and easy test, it’s a great screening tool putting people into groups of low risk/high risk for which further, maybe more expensive/specific/sensitive, tests can be done. Especially if it can do this early.

  •  Bob   ( @MadBob@feddit.nl ) 
    link
    fedilink
    English
    72 months ago

    I had a housemate a couple of years ago who had a side job where she’d look through a load of these and confirm which were accurate. She didn’t say it was AI though.