Jeremy Scahill and Murtaza Hussain
Feb 18, 2026
A former senior U.S. intelligence official who is an informal advisor to the Trump administration on Middle East policy told Drop Site that, based on his discussions with current officials, he assesses an 80-90% likelihood of U.S. strikes within weeks.
Iran realizes that it is facing an unprecedented threat from the U.S. if a deal that conforms with Trump’s terms is not reached, former Pentagon official Jasmine El-Gamal told Drop Site. “This is not a dress rehearsal,” she said. “This is it. This is not the negotiations of last year or the year before or the year before that. They’re backed into a corner. There’s no off ramp.”
Every American who called Russians orcs better be getting ready to fully embrace that label.
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The American invaders versus the Persian defenders. A full scale bombardment.
They just need to channel the power of ahura mazda and send in the Immortal regiment.
Is the likelihood of an invasion based on something Iran is doing? Or is it dependent on how horrifying the next Epstein file drop will be? I mean…I know the fucking answer to this already. Doesn’t make it any less infuriating. This piece of shit will start World War III, all to distract everyone from the fact that he raped children. “No new wars.”
Its never been about anything Iran is doing. They have never had a nuclear weapons program.
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They weren’t, weapons grade is 90, 60 is what is permitted by the NPT agreement, which is what they were enriching to.
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That resolution refers to the requirements set by the 2019 agreement after the Trump unilaterally tore up the previous, multilateral agreement. America does not get to dictate what other states are allowed to do.
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It’s over resources since forever.
I really hate how prophetic the movie Wag the Dog was.
I know this is naive but is there ZERO international efforts to stop this blatant terrorism?
Russia and China have been sending military aid to Iran. China has also cut the US off from rare earths supplies which is affecting American military production. Clearly that hasn’t been a sufficient deterrent though.
And there’s really nothing that can be done in terms of international law because the US simply ignores it.
Obviously neither Russia nor China want to have a direct military confrontation with the US either. That would be WW3, and likely lead to a nuclear holocaust.
So, it seems like a war on Iran is unavoidable at this point.
China has also cut the US off from rare earths supplies which is affecting American military
I thought they capitulated in this, no?
It sounds like its incumbent on american citizens, then
Nope, they never lifted restrictions on that.
Good. I hope they never do
Yeah, if China stops supplying rare earths, that’s really going to cripple US military production capacity going forward.
I guess that also explains the recent american involvement in Africa too
With a dictatorship of the bourgeoisie why is Russia being so nice?
They’re not nice. They wanted to be part of the western club since the fall of USSR, but the west chose to have an antagonistic relationship instead which pushed Russia towards the Global South, because it’s the only option they had. Iran is important to both Russia and China geographically since it creates a route to Middle East and Africa, and it acts as the key force to contain US and Israeli influence in the region.
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Willing? Do you mean: doing all the harm?
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Im not advocating for that regime. Thats a separate issue.
However, the usa abd pissrael goaded Iran into a much more severe reaction. Do you remember when pissrael said they had agents inciting insurrection amongst the protesters?
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Again, this is not me advocating for the regime. However, as an anti-imperiliast, I can hope that the people of Iran make changes to their government on their own, without 2000 lb palestinian child murder bombs from the usa
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I think countries should bomb the USA as they have ice concentration camps. And while they do so I hope that the civilian deaths are people like you
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Trump is finally about to become presidential.
Wdym, he’s already doing the civilian bombing and random country attacks.
Does he really need a war to get full presidential when already the embodiment of what’s wrong with America?
A full-scale, unprovoked invasion of Iran is the only thing that will make Trump a real president in the eyes of the Democrats.
Idk, I think that hinges on him letting them vote to allow it first. If he doesn’t let them vote yes they’ll be upset. Just like trumps other attacks that didn’t tell them beforehand
That’s true, they are sticklers for procedure.
And so many are excited at the thought of getting to approve attacking or bombing Iran 😭
Iran is such a beautiful country. I’ve watched people motorcycle and bicycle through it on YouTube and the people are so kind and warm. It’s really upsetting the way America wields it’s might.
I hope that Iran sinks a carrier. The Trump Regime should have egg on their face, and be forced to keep their grasping hands from touching people.
Can’t have elections during a war. Or some bullshit according to diddlin Donnie.
that’s just a ukranian thing. lol
That’s a “active hostile invasion on our soil makes organised civil processes impossible” thing, if anything. How the hell are the people in occupied territory gonna queue up to vote? How would you validate and count the ballots? How would the displaced refugees receive and submit their ballots?
The whole thing would be so ripe with opportunities for interference that you couldn’t trust the results. Why hold it?
But also, Parliament votes every 90 days to confirm that martial law still applies, so it’s not like President Zelenskyy is just doing so on his own whims.
Maybe, but they’re also aware of that now.
It would cost the CIA couch change to bet 300-400k every weekend that Trump is going to attack just to get the Iranians in a panicked frenzy only for it to not happen. If it prevents even a single US fighter from being shot down by wearing them down with false alarms it would be worth it to place and lose bets like that every weekend for a year on end.
So maybe, but also the US could rig that for nothing, they wouldn’t notice it or need to pass a bill to afford it.
I heard the US’s new legion of peace settled on a headquarters
Its not a legion but a “Bored of Peace”
both the epstein files and gaza shows how cartoonishly evil the ruling class is; so this tracks. lol
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Welp this is going to be Afghanistan on steroids and cocaine.
