I wonder what long-term effects this war will have on Russian population. More territory in Ukraine, but at the cost of size of future generations, as all their young men currently get drafted into the meat grinder?
A slight correction:
When the dust settles, there will be none of this more territory business.
Just more sunflowers.
I don’t see rich Russians dying. I imagine this is just killing the undesirable ones. Like the ones Sam Altman suggests should die.
That’s par for the course in war m’dude. Rich old men declare it, poor young people die in it.
At the very least the question What does it mean to be “russian”? will for decades to come center around grappling with (or living in violent denial of) this reality that Putin/russia threw russia’s future away by sacrificing the next generations of russians and whoever else they can get their hands on to a useless, futile war fought with brutally outdated tactics that wasted the lives of future russian artists, engineers, photographers, carpenters, farmers, mechanics etc…
Russia desperately needed that generation to shepherd russia into a green energy transition, to modernize and integrate russia into a radically changing technologically advanced world. Instead of valuing that generation russia decided that the average young human body was worthless with the advent off drones and AI and that they were to be discarded and thinned out from russian society to more easily cement the power of the russian oligarchs who possess the reigns of the drone armies and AI compute power.
The problem for Putin/russia is that human beings are valuable and if you throw away all of yours with disdain for years and years while your opponent doesn’t it is only a matter of time until you are irrevocably fucked… which again drives a stake right into the heart of russian culture for being the self-betrayal it ultimately is.
shrugs
sucks to suck
If you want an in-depth analysis, Perun has been doing video essays around Ukraine and has good one on the long-term effects of the war (he talks about demographics ~40 minutes in)
Spoilers: it’s not good
It’s kind of darkly hilarious to look at Russian population numbers pre WW1 and realize they would be a second China if only their dictators weren’t so willing to throw their people away for a sliver more wealth.
And, of course, if they had a population base of a billion+ they’d be stealing far more in taxes than they could loot anyways…
much larger issue than this. Russia is after Ukraine for its resources, it’s a major exporter of resources used by the chip industry.
this means people for mining are necessary… this war is depleting men capable of working at said mines as well. long term, as this won’t stop till either side depletes all forces. the economic impact for both countries and the world will be immeasurable.
Russian Soldiers Try to Get Imprisoned to Avoid Going to the Front Line
Russian deserters are seeking imprisonment rather than returning to the front line to continue fighting.
This is reported in an article by the Russian publication “Mediazona”.
The article details the practice whereby Russian servicemen deliberately seek criminal prosecution to avoid being sent back to the war against Ukraine.
A key factor is Vladimir Putin’s Decree No. 647 on “partial” mobilization, signed in September 2022, which left only three grounds for discharge from service: reaching the age of 65, health conditions, or imprisonment following a court sentence.
Because of this, some Russian soldiers began to view imprisonment as the only realistic way to leave the army, especially after participating in assault operations with heavy casualties and, according to them, brutal treatment by the command …
