We’ve never had an Atlantic hurricane season without a single hurricane through the end of September since reliable records began—until now.

That fact underscores how remarkable this season has been, with an exceptionally strong El Niño—likely to become the biggest in living memory—keeping a lid on tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic while supercharging it in the eastern Pacific (and giving Hawaii one of its busiest seasons on record).

Though ocean waters across the Atlantic are amply warm right now, those cross-cutting winds—known as wind shear—aren’t abating. That’s thanks to El Niño. This cyclical climate phenomenon happens because of an eastward shift in warm ocean waters in the Pacific, although it has worldwide effects on the weather. The movement of warm waters, in turn, changes where heat enters the atmosphere, which alters the motions of atmospheric currents. In the Atlantic, that means there is more wind shear and air that pushes downward, both of which stymie cyclone development.

    • JohnnyEnzyme ( JohnnyEnzyme@piefed.social ) 
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      4 hours ago

      And the effects of Ocean Acidification almost seem to be outpacing the effects of Global Climate change.

      Not much time left before some nation’s (or a coalition) are going to try monkeying with the atmosphere, which could backfire in all kinds of disastrous ways.

      How’s your deluxe bunker in NZ coming along there, Elon?

      • I don’t supposed you have a date for when the really bad stuff shows up?

        As a senior in Florida with health issues, for me it’s a race between my impending death and the fall of civilization. And so far it’s looking like a dead heat.

        • JohnnyEnzyme ( JohnnyEnzyme@piefed.social ) 
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          4 hours ago

          Oof, I feel you. Myself I’m in late middle age, carrying a terminal illness, and it’s looking very much the same.

          Oh btw, another factor of course is late-stage capitalism itself, as directly brought on by the asshole-billionaire class & a variety wealth-accumulating mechanisms baked deep in to the system.

          And now, AI. Possibly just as worse as any of them, at least in terms of burying civilisation.

          Anyway, I personally feel based on my understanding of the news and various factors that most of us have only got a few years left, at best. At least, in terms of what we’d consider “recognisable existence.” In any case, it’s only going to get more and more turbulent and chaotic along the way. For some other opinions, certainly check out c/collapse and r/collapse, if you like.

          That said, if the Orange-Red-Billionaire Coalition fail to stop a fair, non-bullied midterms in the States in a little while, it would certainly give us however much more breathing room. Knock on wood, anybody? At the same time, the supervillains are essentially doing whatever they can to thwart that. Article and news abound upon their methodologies, up to and including Drumpf declaring Martial Law.

          In truth I’m just an amateur, though, so what the heck do I know?

          Oh… and here’s to you, friend!
          https://piefed.social/c/quotes@quokk.au/p/2325992/remember-unknown-author-sculpture-by-penny-hardy-notes-in-post

          • It’s a weird place to be in isn’t. Terminal during the end times.

            I worked my whole life to save up a nest egg, and then a doctor puts me bloodwork into a statistical model and suddenly it “oh shit” time.

            And I’m in Florida so what ever happens I’ve got a front row seat for the apocalypse. While at the same time it turns out that Florida has really sub standard medical care.

            Oh well. At least I’m not in Gaza or the Ukraine.

  • Rhaedas ( Rhaedas@fedia.io ) 
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    4 hours ago

    This is totally not based on weather science, but more of a gut feeling. Just like with being a water supply, are hurricanes also a way for the weather system to adjust heat energy? So lack of hurricanes will cause drought conditions in places that typically fill some of their water table from the heavy rains… what will not moving all this heat energy result in?