Spoilers for both episodes:

In the alternate future depicted in “A Quality of Mercy”, Una has been in prison for the past seven years. In the main timeline, we now know that Una wins her trial and doesn’t serve any prison time. How do we account for the fact that the same events led to two different outcomes?

This bugged me for hours yesterday. But after some thought and time, I think a solution exists!

We know, in the Prime timeline, that Pike literally risked his life to visit Neera (the Illyrian attorney). Her skills, and devotion to Illyrian rights, ultimately win the case. Therefore, in the alternate future, we must conclude that Pike did not take this same action.

The only difference between the two version of Pike, with regard to Una’s trial anyway, is that the prime Pike had already seen the alternate future. He knew that if something drastic didn’t happen, Una would lose and be imprisoned. This is why he sought an outspoken attorney from outside Starfleet.

It’s interesting, then, to consider the fact that Una’s victory was indirectly caused by Pike seeing the future - which was in turn caused by his first glimpse of the canon future back in Discovery. And if Una was fated to lose the trial without the interference of future knowledge, will this change have ramifications too? Is SNW now branched off of the original canon into its own timeline?

(Personally, I hope so! My wish is that SNW diverges from the Prime timeline, and finds a way for Pike to escape his fate without causing disaster. And that Spock & Chapel end up together.)