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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: March 22nd, 2025

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  • yeah, alright then:

    you are arguing from ignorance, ask for evidence, then reject said evidence in the first paragraph instead of reading the entire thing because of a boilerplate disclaimer (which you of course do not understand to be boilerplate).

    you read the executive summary, even though you asked for the methodology, which is explained in the studies linked under the sources of the article.

    you need to click through to the actual study to see the methodology.

    the link i provided is just a summary of multiple studies.

    the studies lack this disclaimer, which was added by factually, probably for legal reasons, not because the data is faulty.

    since you’re apparently too lazy to even click the links already pointing to the exact information you asked for, here’s the abstract of the NBER/Stanford paper (most relevant part at the end highlighted):

    This paper examines the impact of the UK’s decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016. Using almost a decade of data since the referendum, we combine simulations based on macro data with estimates derived from micro data collected through our Decision Maker Panel survey. These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%. These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process. Comparing these with contemporary forecasts – providing a rare macro example to complement the burgeoning micro-literature of social science predictions – shows that these forecasts were accurate over a 5-year horizon, but they underestimated the impact over a decade

    from the CEPR/VoxEU article (already in plain language and easy to read):

    So, taking all this together, what’s the bottom line? First, the public is right. Brexit has damaged the UK economy. But, inevitably, the mechanisms and hence the impacts have been considerably more complex than economists could incorporate in macroeconomic or trade models, with their inevitably simplifying assumptions. To simplify hugely, however, it would be reasonable to say that the impact on trade overall has been broadly consistent with predictions so far, that on immigration much less negative (and perhaps even positive) and on investment somewhat worse.

    so, yes, brexit has been bad for the UK economy. definitely, without question.

    what IS still in question is how bad exactly it was.

    THAT’S were the uncertainty is.

    whether or not it was detrimental has been answered with abundant certainty: it was bad.



  • if we only ever look at past data, and never compare that data to alternative scenarios, then it gets really difficult to make better decisions in the future.

    in circumstances where the sample size is naturally limited to just 1, it is necessary to perform simulations in order to gain insight into the outcome of any given event. there’s not really any other way to do this.

    what you call “wank estimates” (very scientific, thank you) is a collection of well established research methodologies that have been used with great success in both predicting future outcomes and analyzing past outcomes.

    this is evidence. it provides mathematical certainty, in this case about brexit.

    this is factual evidence, not simply “wank estimates”.

    and the evidence suggests that the UK economy would be significantly better off without brexit.

    this is simply fact.

    that the UK economy did mostly fine on its own is not relevant, because that’s not the point.

    the point is, that it would have been better for the economy, if the UK had remained.


  • yeah, nah, brexit did have a major negative Impact on the UK economy:

    Taken together, independent assessments paint a consistent picture: Brexit has reduced UK GDP (estimates commonly span roughly 2–8% to date, with central academic estimates clustering around 6–8% by 2025), slashed business investment (commonly estimated down 12–18% by mid‑2020s and in some scenarios far larger over decades), and trimmed productivity (roughly 3–4% in many studies and up to 4% in OBR scenarios), and they identify trade frictions, uncertainty and misallocation as core drivers—facts that point to policy levers on trade facilitation, investment incentives and productivity reforms if the UK seeks to narrow the gap with its peers [2] [4] [1] [3].

    damn near all economy experts agree on a negative, long-term impact fo the UK economy. they just can’t be entirely sure how bad it was, just that it was quite bad.

    single digit percentage points don’t sound too bad, but when it’s entire percentage points pf an entire economy that actually works out to billions in lost economic activity.

    the stats you provided do not show any comparison to a no-brexit/remain scenario, which is what should be compared.






  • This is myth and legend.

    Mostly it was equipment being destroyed if they destroyed everything.

    ahhhmm…no? at least, that wasn’t the point being made by the workers.

    sabotaging factory equipment was a show of intent: “we are serious about causing damage. this time it’s equipment, next time it’s you!”

    the factory vandalism was a threat.

    if the threat was understood as being serious, and working conditions improved as a result, no further escalation was necessary. that’s why relatively few escalations happened.

    however, A) escalations DID go further on quite a few occasions, and B) the threat preventing the necessity of further escalation was the entire point.

    so, no, it wasn’t “myth and legend”. it worked exactly as intended.

    and it worked, because of the couple of times the threat was not taken seriously. those times made it clear that the threat is real.


  • oh, i am VERY interested in this!

    seems like it’d be a very handy tool for modding, since file conversions are usually either done through gimp, if it supports the format, or some random ass tool/website that does only one thing…

    having a swiss army knife type solution would be excellent!

    one point of feedback about the interface:

    anytime there’s a slider, there should also be a direct input field to type into.

    this is to prevent things like UI scaling, or mouse sensitivity preventing proper input…ask me how i know…

    might also be an accessibility thing; for example people with tremors, or generally low dexterity.

    text input is never the wrong choice, but sliders can be!