I think Microsoft will Do something anticompetitive which will stop the Linux growth.

I predict it will be reminiscent to the migration to the threadiverse. Every now and then, we have seen Reddit make some stupid decision, and then we subsequently see a wave of new users migrate to Lemmy. Eventually, one day, I expect Reddit will make such a monumentally stupid decision that nearly everybody bails at once.

That is like what I expect Linux growth to look like. A few waves now and then with each major release of Windows, with each major Microsoft data leak, with each pricing restructuring, etc. Then eventually, Microsoft makes a single fatal decision that causes nearly all remaining Windows users to finally give up hope and migrate.

Assuming you mean desktop Linux, probably slowly. While Linux on desktop is growing, Desktops PC use in general is trending downwards and Linux on mobile is far behind the other players.

My gut says that long before Linux overtakes Windows/Macintosh most people who want a mouse/keyboard/monitor experience will just plug their phone into a simple dock, like we’re seeing with Android’s “Desktop mode”.

Honestly, I hope that doesn’t happen. I think if everyone started using Linux it would end up being diluted with commercial entities. You’d have Linux companies like Canonical scooping up more and more market share until they are essentially just the Linux Microsoft corporation. At that point, any decision they make becomes the defacto law of the land despite smaller independent distros/groups trying to do things differently. Other choices would exist, but basically it would be like how most linux users have to live with systemd changes because it’s a nightmare to replace that without distro hopping.

You’d still see off-shoots for the desktop space, but if you want to use <INSERT_X> then you have go through this company.

If I’m being 100% real, it will not happen without some kind of MAJOR societal shift relating to how technology and law enforcement is managed. If Linux ever becomes the default option, you’ll have bigger things on your mind.

People will use “shitty corporate Linux” because no corporation is going to pre-install an OS that isn’t shitty spyware because spying on you is worth money and why on earth would a corporation leave money on the table?

Best guess is slow growth that eventually plateaus around maybe the 10% mark if we’re lucky.

People are slaves to comfort, and ultimately that is what Microsoft and Apple are trying to sell. They want something that idiots can’t break, and they know the best way to do that is lock down the OS so much that you’re hardly able to interact with it at all. Unfortunately, there’s a lot of people fundamentally unwilling to expend the very, very small modicum of brainpower necessary to use Linux these days, and I just don’t think there’s any chance of reaching them.

Slow and steady, with occasional spikes when a government or mega-corp does something particularly terrible.

As I see it, if there’s a fast pivot point to Linux it will be when the larger PC makers offer, side by side with a Windows option, a “with Linux pre-installed” option, especially if the final price reflects the cost of the OS license.

Even then, the shift would take years as people slowly replace old machines, a process which itself takes significativelly longer nowadays due to the current insane prices for some PC parts.

Sure, there is a drip-drip effect from people getting things like the Steam Deck and Steam Machine as well as tech types replacing whatever is in the machines of their family members with Linux as a way to avoid having to replace that hardware with newer (and at the moment far more expensive) machines, but I don’t think that adds up to much more that 1-2 per year.

Mind you, this is a point of view based on how things work in Europe and the US - it’s quite possible that things are very different in places like China and developing nations and there are very different pathways and reasons for Linux adoption.

i think that linux usage will stagnate around 10% of people using it, with 90% instead choosing not to operate any computer at all …

I believe Linux will experience a slow, steady growth because the technical alternatives for most Windows features and softwares already exist, making it pretty much a matter of time until people realize it. But the friction, like IT retraining, vendor certified vendor support from Adobe and other shit, and general user habits, are still too high.

Edit: Although, on a second thought, maybe not even that slow given Microsoft incompetence at managing Windows.

Valve’s Proton support bringing gaming to Linux effectively, Windows 10 reaching its EoL deeming millions of perfectly functional PCs as e-waste by requiring TPM 2.0 and a short list of CPUs, and Microsoft’s aggressive and incessant push of invasive telemetry and AI features (like that shit Recall stuff), are certainly driving a lot of users toward Linux. If Microsoft keep making decisions like this, I’m not sure how long they will be able retain their user base.

I feel like that already happened. There was a big malware attack on Arch recently.

Stagnation around 5% tops.

I expect an uptick every time a major Windows update does something users don’t want. After the uptick some might go back to Windows or switch to Mac. But otherwise it will be a very slow and steady growth for GNU+Linux. I don’t think GNU+Linux will pass 10% desktop OS market share before 2035, it might even take longer.