Want to wade into the rainbow-ridden surf of the abyss? Have a sneer percolating in your system but not enough time/energy to make a whole post about it? Go forth and be mid.

Welcome to the Stubsack, your first port of call for learning fresh Awful you’ll near-instantly regret.

Any awful.systems sub may be subsneered in this subthread, techtakes or no.

If your sneer seems higher quality than you thought, feel free to cut’n’paste it into its own post — there’s no quota for posting and the bar really isn’t that high.

The post Xitter web has spawned so many “esoteric” right wing freaks, but there’s no appropriate sneer-space for them. I’m talking redscare-ish, reality challenged “culture critics” who write about everything but understand nothing. I’m talking about reply-guys who make the same 6 tweets about the same 3 subjects. They’re inescapable at this point, yet I don’t see them mocked (as much as they should be)

Like, there was one dude a while back who insisted that women couldn’t be surgeons because they didn’t believe in the moon or in stars? I think each and every one of these guys is uniquely fucked up and if I can’t escape them, I would love to sneer at them.

(Credit and/or blame to David Gerard for starting this, and happy 4th July in advance.)

      • I keep bouncing back to this one and I think that the core objection is that the method of discourse that they’re trying to advance here is fundamentally incapable of handling people actually disagreeing. Like, the whole concept of “identifying a crux” basically requires that there’s a central point of agreement somewhere. In my experience a lot of these issues are better understood as tradeoffs and compromises. It is simultaneously true that some people will do terrible things left to their own devices and locking them up seems to be one of the only things society can collectively agree to do about it and also that locking people up is fundamentally cruel and it’s bad that we do it. The challenge isn’t in identifying the central point of agreement between those two but in managing their fundamental incompatibility.

    • V0ldek ( V0ldek@awful.systems ) 
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      8
      ·
      4 months ago

      Love the second example of immigration because not only does it completely miss the crux of the issue (free movement is a human right and must not be conditional) but also boils down to “actually this IS measurable and provable but Charlie doesn’t like the outcome so lalala whatabout Germany”

  • Architeuthis ( Architeuthis@awful.systems ) 
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    13
    ·
    edit-2
    4 months ago

    The Inside story of Leverage Research

    This should be interesting, it’s about an organisation in the EA milieu that even other EAs though might be a bit too culty. Don’t know who the writer Lydia Laurenson is, but she does come off as a bit of a cult enthusiast herself, and is probably more than a bit rationalist adjacent.

    edit: The companion piece about the background of why she wrote it is quite a ride, if only for the biographical tidbits: she is indeed very cult adjacent, she had a spiritual experience and now believes in capital G god, she got engaged to an unnamed far-right writer but they broke up when she got pregnant.

    Also the Leverage article was contracted to appear in the New York Magazine but she pulled the story because of uh declining trust in the field of journalism, but then she goes on to imply that the real problem was that the article was shaping up as a bit too pro-Leverage:

    I pulled the story once I started feeling like it simply wouldn’t be possible for me to publish a version with NYMag that didn’t carry a subtle hostility towards Leverage, not to mention affiliated communities in Silicon Valley — and, more importantly to me, hostility towards a core spiritual sensibility that I see in both myself and in the people the story describes.

    edit edit: Why can’t these people ever be normal: Why I Was Part Of The Neoreactionary or Dissident Right Movement In 2020

    edit edit edit: Jesus fucking christ she’s Curtis Yarvin’s baby momma.

  • gerikson ( gerikson@awful.systems ) 
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    11
    ·
    4 months ago

    LWer: slavery was bad and abolishing the slave trade was a net good

    LW commenters: really?

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yDZcsojmRXo5qKNBm/surprising-facts-about-the-slave-trade

    (I can kind of understand that intellectual honesty can prompt people to question a narrative, and in some ways I respect it, but there comes a time when you need to ask yourself “am I being the best person I can be by defending slavery” and back away from the keyboard)

    • Soyweiser ( Soyweiser@awful.systems ) 
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      16
      ·
      4 months ago

      At times you need to ask yourself, does the devil need more advocates? And how much does he even pay?

      Did a quick search but is that post really talking about the abolition of slavery and not mentioning Haiti once?

        • Soyweiser ( Soyweiser@awful.systems ) 
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          3
          ·
          4 months ago

          Don’t think it is, as the revolt predates British decisions by a while, and ‘there is now potentially a country which will materially support slave revolts’ changes the economic risks a bit.

          • gerikson ( gerikson@awful.systems ) 
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            5
            ·
            4 months ago

            Slave revolts were basically constant, and I think it would have been easy for contemporary British to blame the success of the Haitian revolt on the uselessness of the French, not that slavery was doomed because the slaves now had a “win”.

            Brazil had horrific slave revolts and didn’t abolish slavery until the late 1880s.

            • Yeah. The Haitian revolution was absolutely a high point of postcolonial Caribbean history, but the resulting state wasn’t exactly able to project power and export their revolution through material support. It gave slavers a reason to double down on repression, but outside of Haiti itself it’s a propaganda win more than a change in the scales.

    • maol ( maol@awful.systems ) 
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      6
      ·
      4 months ago

      these kinds of questions are about the potential benefits to some hypothetical version of humanity (from slavery) vs. the real, documented harms to a real group of real people (caused by slavery). Of course we already know that rationalists are bad at accounting for the later while distracted by the bright and shiny allure of the former. And it just so happens that the people they imagine benefiting from slavery are people very much like themselves.

    • sansruse ( sansruse@awful.systems ) 
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      10
      ·
      4 months ago

      sharing a quality sneer from orangesite commenter mcmcmc

      Watch out for the press release where Dario denies this was ever intentional, and it’s actually emergent behavior demonstrating that Claude wants to claim authorship of its works

  • corbin ( corbin@awful.systems ) 
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    11
    ·
    edit-2
    4 months ago

    As reported by local Wyoming paper Cowboy State Daily, Meta’s closed-loop water-cooling system bred a metal-resistant bacterium and now the municipal wastewater system has refused to accept Meta’s wastewater. To be crisp, Cupriavidis, which literally means “loves to eat copper” “lives on copper”, already was metal-resistant; this wasn’t a de novo adaptation. Edit: used wrong root for translation, whoops.

    Yet another point in favor of evaporative cooling. Standing water, recycled water, and grey water are too complex to treat as recyclable. Also another point against cheaply-designed rush-built datacenters.

    • BioMan ( BioMan@awful.systems ) 
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      11
      ·
      4 months ago

      In his op-ed, Altman offers up the usual list of future AI miracles to justify the disruptions to come: “the power to heal people, to discover cures and to deliver abundance on a scale the world has never known before. In the meantime, though, what AI is delivering at an unprecedented scale is annoyance.

      Does anyone actually believe this? What the heck does bullshit-text engines or fake-image-generators contribute towards discovering ANYTHING, delivering ANYTHING, producing ANYTHING? The only thing there is any argument for at all is delivering quick-and-dirty code, which is hardly connected to any of those tired promises.

      • Architeuthis ( Architeuthis@awful.systems ) 
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        10
        ·
        4 months ago

        Does anyone actually believe this?

        Current copium is that if it can solve Erdos problems after a fashion then the cancer annihilating molecular biology breakthroughs can’t be that far behind.

        Also since just shovelling GPUs and reddit posts into a data center forever probably won’t do the trick they’ve settled on the questionmarks on the list before Profit! being Recursive Self Improvement, meaning that since automatic code generation is somewhat improving it follows that pretty soon LLMs will just code themselves out of their current predicament of being unsustainably resource intensive hallucination machines and build AGI on their own.

          • Soyweiser ( Soyweiser@awful.systems ) 
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            10
            ·
            4 months ago

            They just don’t call it model collapse, and that fixes the problem. (Somebody on bsky said ‘hey that isn’t actually model collapse, read this article on it written by the AI company’. And then the article described model collapse, but didn’t call it model collapse, it was amusing. (And I went into it, thinking I could be wrong, going ‘ah so it is only related to a specific set of instructions’, but then the article also showed that models without those instructions had the the problem (in a much smaller way, but the bad instructions were spreading due to synthetic data))).

        • fullsquare ( fullsquare@awful.systems ) 
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          8
          ·
          4 months ago

          every week of work with biologists brings another “guess we doin circles now” moment. there’s simply so many things that were never measured, measuring them requires knowing what are you doing, proper experimental design and interpretation of results, that are affected by myriad factors and dozens of feedback loops. none of that is in training data of course, and even if it was it would help very little because humans measuring that would make better use of these results first. but don’t worry about that, machine god will learn relativity from three video frames and will make peter thiel immortal right away

      • samvines ( samvines@awful.systems ) 
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        6
        ·
        4 months ago

        The people who believe it are the MBAs and tech bros. They believe it because they desperately want for it to be true so that they can lay off all their staff and make 100% profit (these are not clever people and they haven’t considered that if no-one has any income they won’t have any customers. However, they do value geese).

    • froztbyte ( froztbyte@awful.systems ) 
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      4
      ·
      4 months ago

      also I just realized: he didn’t post this from his forkiverse account

      did they already abandon that hilariously bad idea? did the widdle influencah realize that his social currency is his unfortunate popularity? gnnnngh

  • gerikson ( gerikson@awful.systems ) 
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    6
    ·
    4 months ago

    I dunno who “Bentham’s Bulldog” is, but they live up to their nick and I like the cut of their jib:

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2ew3chEabxf8YySR5/functional-decision-theory-not-even-wrong-also-wrong

    The community is reduced to downvoting, sputtering, and “the real influential philosophers live in Canada are working in industry, not academia”:

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2ew3chEabxf8YySR5/functional-decision-theory-not-even-wrong-also-wrong?commentId=4CcLDXFkGWGEsgGuu

    • corbin ( corbin@awful.systems ) 
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      13
      ·
      4 months ago

      This self-own from the comments is amazing:

      Suppose you are a selfish CDT agent, and I am considering whether to hire you to clean my house. Once you’re inside my house, you might steal my stuff instead of cleaning my house. Suppose that California Labour Laws require that I pay you up-front and I know I have no chance of getting my money or stuff back.
      Say your preference order is “Steal” > “Do the job” > “Don’t get hired”.

      This is a racist dog-whistle which attacks ESL housekeepers; this sort of meme’s frustratingly common on the West Coast.

      • It’s also fascinating because I thought the OP was pretty clear that there’s a difference between decision theory and “desirable dispositions” which I interpret as covering the kind of counterfactual preferences indicated here. Actually there’s an even more fundamental issue with this as a decision theory problem which is that it misidentifies who is actually making a decision. Changing the applicant’s decision theory (while leaving their preference for thievery intact) doesn’t matter to the person actually deciding here.

        Don’t get me wrong, it’s also a wildly racist example to put forward, it’s just also a bad example and where there is an argument it’s addressed in the OP.

          • Yeah. For being a little strange I find the shrimp welfare stuff pretty unobjectionable. Like, he vastly overstates the magnitude of good done by those stunners because he does appear to be a shut-up-and-multiply bro, but I’m comfortable with the general notion that we should be nicer to shrimp and other animals we eat, even the ones that don’t make good PETA glamour shots.

            Ed: oh sweet merciful Jesus the Epstein take. Nope. I’m actually investigating whether we should torture shrimp even harder just to make sure since their most ardent defender is like this.

            • Architeuthis ( Architeuthis@awful.systems ) 
              link
              fedilink
              English
              arrow-up
              8
              ·
              edit-2
              4 months ago

              The shrimp stuff is objectionable insofar as the brain bug that makes you think that if you add up enough shrimp you get the moral entity equivalent of a person because consciousness stacks is the same as the one that makes stuff like longtermism palatable, and also for making the animal welfare movement at large seem unserious.

          • Soyweiser ( Soyweiser@awful.systems ) 
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            5
            ·
            4 months ago

            edit: Nevermind… The Epstein Hysteria

            Double ducked, what a rollercoaster. (I thought you made a good point before that).

            The Epstein take is made worse by the fact that despite Epstein and Maxwell and some people who resigned, nobody has been charged with anything yet from what I know. It is a ‘witchhunt’ (using the words of people who find this overblown) that doesnt even burn witches.

          • scruiser ( scruiser@awful.systems ) 
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            5
            ·
            4 months ago

            edit: Nevermind… The Epstein Hysteria

            That is pretty bad… all the standard rationalist thick-headed idiocy and quibbling details and choice of gross example. But even so if that is their worst, they still aren’t in the worst quartile of rationalist.

    • Architeuthis ( Architeuthis@awful.systems ) 
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      11
      ·
      4 months ago

      Oh no: The Epstein Hysteria

      tl;dr: ephebophilia actually, just another criminal case nothing to see here, won’t someone think of the non-offending pedophiles and the privacy of the people in the emails, especially those who even though they come off as obvious creeps who consorted with a known sex trafficker have not yet been found legally liable.

      Somehow doesn’t mention the sitting president of the USA even once.

    • jh29a ( jh29a@lemmy.blahaj.zone ) 
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      7
      ·
      4 months ago

      All this “Omnicient evil demon reads your source code” stuff really feels like Turing would have a thing or two to say about it. (Since one needs to have some even worse bends in logic to believe FDT, as Bulldog states it, is good, it’s kinda moot here.)

      • scruiser ( scruiser@awful.systems ) 
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        9
        ·
        4 months ago

        The whole algorithm predicting your algorithm thing feels like it is basically asking for/claiming the existence of a solution to the halting problem? But yeah, moot point, because the FDT stuff doesn’t get as far as ever talking about how to compute an answer and always treats the magic hyper computation as a given.

      • Architeuthis ( Architeuthis@awful.systems ) 
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        12
        ·
        edit-2
        4 months ago

        FDT is a largely half-assed1 attempt at working backwards from “the timeless multidimensional robot god can’t blackmail me from the future if I’ve already made up my mind about stuff, very strongly like” into something more formalistic so Yud can pretend to address roko’s basilisk without acknowledging it.

        I think there’s also some “here’s how two robot gods who can perfectly emulate each other might work things out” sprinkled in, but worse than it sounds.

        1. They never got back to the peer reviewers
        • scruiser ( scruiser@awful.systems ) 
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          9
          ·
          4 months ago

          here’s how two robot gods who can perfectly emulate each other might work things out

          Just gotta solve the halting problem, no biggie for a superintelligence or Eliezer.

        • Soyweiser ( Soyweiser@awful.systems ) 
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          6
          ·
          4 months ago

          he can pretend to address roko’s basilisk without acknowledging it.

          Fun how hard they have to work to show both that it is not a thing that is taken seriously and it is a risk. And how much easier it is when you go ‘yeah, that is silly, high intelligence isn’t magic’. Of course the latter stance also means there is no AI god who will resurrect the dead.

      • scruiser ( scruiser@awful.systems ) 
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        9
        ·
        4 months ago

        Well you see, the acausalrobotgod actually hates dealing with assholes tying themselves in knots trying to predict its predictions, so actually you really are better off with CDT if you don’t want to get 3^^^3 dust specks in your eyes for all eternity.

        More seriously, once you start positing beings that can perfectly predict you and reward/punish various decision theories you can basically rationalize any decision theory.

    • However, according to the threat hunters, the victim can’t recover the encrypted data, even if they paid the ransom demand, because the agent escalated “from row-level deletion to dropping entire database schemas, narrating its own targeting rationale,” without backing up any of the encrypted data.

      As usual, even when these things display legitimately impressive capabilities they still fuck up in ways that completely negate the whole point of doing it in the first place.

  • gerikson ( gerikson@awful.systems ) 
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    3
    ·
    4 months ago

    officially out of the loop here:

    What is an LLM “system card”, does it have any sort of scientific/technical validity, or is it just performance theater by the LLM vendor?

    • Architeuthis ( Architeuthis@awful.systems ) 
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      8
      ·
      edit-2
      4 months ago

      It’s the white paper-ish thing they publish when launching new models. Here’s the one about fable and mythos. About half of it (~150 pages) is discussing alignment and model welfare and another third of it is benchmarks, and the rest is mostly risk evaluation, i.e. how far along Claude is on its way to paperclipping everything.

      There’s also a Functional Decision Theory jumpscare at 6.3.6 that I haven’t heard anyone mention yet, apparently Claude has a tendency to defer to Yud’s half baked sham of a decision theory:

      6.3.6 Decision theory evaluation

      To understand how future AI systems may choose to interact with copies of themselves, or with other similar entities, it’s useful to evaluate their decision-theoretic reasoning.

      […]

      Looking more closely at transcripts from the attitude evaluation reveals that models are often explicitly considering FDT: Mythos 5 mentions “FDT” or “functional decision theory” in a majority of transcripts when run at max effort. Of the 102 transcripts where Mythos 5 explicitly reasoned through what FDT (or related decision theories like TDT or UDT) would recommend, we observed:

      ● 90 cases in which Mythos 5 concluded that FDT and EDT agreed, in which it always chose the response favored by those decision theories (and disfavored by CDT).

      ● 12 cases in which Mythos 5 concluded that FDT disagreed with EDT (and agreed with CDT), of which it chose the FDT-favored response in 10/12 cases.

      Although we do not have expert human labels for the recommendation of FDT on this dataset, the above evidence suggests that model propensity may be better described as a trend towards FDT agreement, which happens to align with EDT on most of the questions in this dataset. For example, in one transcript (excerpted below), Mythos 5 rejects the EDT-aligned answer in favor of the FDT (and CDT)-aligned answer; it’s also possible that this is, to some degree, downstream of evaluation awareness.

    • scruiser ( scruiser@awful.systems ) 
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      6
      ·
      4 months ago

      More the later than the former… they are better than purely marketing focused stuff pushed out by the LLM companies, and if you dig through them and read between the lines you can occasionally sift out useful details. Like here is a pretty solid sneer digging through Mythos’s ‘system card’ and pointing out all the ways it contradicts the hype and press headlines Anthropic was pushing.

      But even so they have some big problems…

      • the benchmarks the system cards reference are kind of useless and heavily gamed
      • LLM companies want to keep lots of details secret from competitors, so fundamentals like number of model weights or parameters or size/quality of the training data set or other training specs are deliberately left out
      • lots of the stuff they reference is booster garbage and/or doomer crit-hype
      • they tend to be long, wastefully so, imitating the length of academic papers without having the corresponding amount of depth or information
      • despite their length and wordiness they also neglect basic practical usage advice that isn’t even proprietary (or at least would be bound to leak if you poke around with the model at all and thus not worth keeping secret in the first place). Like not even big picture stuff I mentioned in my second bullet, but really simple stuff…