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Cake day: June 9th, 2023

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  • You realize that even with a laws-of-physics-perfect-theoretical camera in order for a fighter jet to be even a single solitary pixel it would need a primary mirror well over twice as wide as the SpaceX “starship”, right?

    Like launching a keyhole style satellite would require a Sea Dragon just for one pixel per ten by ten meter square.

    I get that space is big and most people really don’t understand scale, but there is a reason that optical spy satellites are well below the ISS in some of the lowest stable orbits for such large satellites, about a hundred and twenty times closer than geostationary to orbit.

    Suffice to say no one has come close to trying this, and it would be the wrong solution to the problem as compared to just throwing 100 times the money to the NRO and letting them throw up keyholes like they were cubesats, and that still would only get you limited areas every few minutes.

    All of this doesn’t effect any of the other problems, like trying to get this imaging down to data centers, doing image recognition on such a massive data stream in near real time, or that it can be completely eliminated in a half hour with a few old fighter jets and some of the anti-satellite missiles everyone down to India has whole stockpiles of.


  • I hate to burst the bubble on the Elon Musk school of ‘what use is stealth when everyone has cameras’ way of thinking, but even neglecting that if you are in a conflict where you are using this sort of fighter jet then your satellites have been shot down by the enemy’s air force, satellite imagery and the laws of physics just doesn’t work that way outside of sifi.

    The planet Earth is just too damn big for that sort of thing. The NEO can give you a decently high res photo of a place maybe several times a day, and even that means prioritizing using said satellite to look at that one single place on Earth.

    More practically you get once or twice a day, with the resolution necessary to pick out a jet being limited to the small area you picked out ahead of time, and of course the enemy knows to within a half and hour or so when that picture is going to be taken.

    AI guided TV missiles have been a thing since the 70s, and still remain only really practical for targets that can’t move very much. Little real world things like size of optics, stability of optics, resolution of optics, atmospheric distortion, cloudy days, night, mountains, horizons, etc, have kept this a non-answer to an unsolved physics problem for quite some time.

    This isn’t to say that the military isn’t an incredibly good way of making public money disappear or that the US has it monitory priorities in order, but rather there is very much a reason that the Inspectors General report into this very project several months ago came back with Yes, this is the most cost effective solution for the military to achieve its goal of providing credible deterrence and preventing a war in the Asia Pacific region.

    Moreover I would argue that the US has never lacked the money for healthcare or schools because of the military, and that if Trump desolved and fired the entire military tomorrow it would still not spend more on schools or healthcare. Rather I would argue that the US is ideologically driven to generally avoid taxing the people with all the money who own its leaders, it by and large does not want that money bring spent on things that benefit poor people, and many of its voters would rather burn the whole thing down than accept a dime going to a black or brown person.


  • It’s worth noting that this project for a F22 replacement has been known to be in development for quite a while now, so this is less a Trump thing than someone at the Pentagon pulling him aside and changing the name to make it less likely he will kill it when Putin or Xi Jinping remember they can just ask him to and he will.

    Here is an excellent as always Perun summery on the US, EU, etc projects as of a month ago, but basically it doesn’t matter how good the F22 is over the pasific if China just shoots down all your tankers and carriers from well out of range, so it’s high time for a pasific range capable fighter.

    Shame it’s going to Boeing though.








  • It’s also worth expanding on this by noting that 35% of the debt is debt from one government agency to another. Another 34% is held by various financial institutions who use it as a protection against financial risk as even if the market crashes they’ll still have a basically guaranteed (and now very valuable) asset to cash out to keep their customers safe, while only 24% is held by people, institutions, and governments outside the United States.

    Together we’ve just gone over 93% of the national debt.

    Also, they way we paid off this debt last time was that 50% effective corporate tax rate and a 91% top income tax rate during the 40s, 50s, and 60s, which as we all know was a really terrible time for the American economy./s










  • +1 for FS multi mode fiber, it’s worked well enough for me.

    I know FS’s SFP-10GMSR-85 (Intel) (formerly SFP-10GSR-85) works in my Mikrotik CRS317-1G-16S+, but don’t know either way about the Ubiquiti transceivers.

    I’m afraid I dont have any real experience with fiber keystones one way or the other.

    I will say that if you have the space in the run or are opening up walls, help out you’re future self and run it in some smurf tube, though obviously that’s not always possible without massively expanding the amount of drywall work.


  • Firstly, the standard lifespan for modern solar panels is typically 25 to 30 years, while nearly all grid scale batteries are rated for 5000 to 8000 0-100% cycles, which is 13 to 20 years of daily cycling. If you are not completely discharging the batteries every day that lifetime can be far longer.

    Secondly, it’s worth remembering that said rated lifespan is not when the pannel or battery stops working, but rather the point at which it hits 80% of the capacity it had when installed. This means that when that happens if you just do nothing for another decade or two, you are still getting well more than half of a brand new power plant’s worth of output for free, as this output is often not calculated in the cost of the plant. This also means you only need to replace panels on the same timeline as nuclear plants need far more expensive complete refurbishments.

    Thirdly, yes, solar outputs less than it does in some parts of the world, which means you need proportionally more space and funding to build it. Still far less than the cost of a nuclear plant of the same output, and as for land use, I was unaware that Canada was such a small dense country, completely devoid of parking lots much less vast grassland parries.

    Finally, you realize that nuclear plants have far higher operational costs than wind and solar, with the Pickering plant for instance requiring over three thousand staff to keep operating, while most solar fields don’t even have a single full time employee?

    Ultimately however, the largest demonstration that nuclear will not clean up Canada’s energy is that in the quarter century that Canada had known without doubt that it must replace its oil and gas plants, it has not tried to do so with nuclear despite building nuclear reactors only getting more and more expensive with each passing year. As such, of the government has so thoroughly demonstrated it is unwilling to replace oil and gas with a more expensive option, maybe we should focus our efforts on getting them replaced with less expensive options instead.